Alexis Lafrenière is no longer being treated like the Rangers’ forever mystery. The first-overall pick has spent six seasons in New York drawing strong opinions in every direction, but the conversation around him has shifted. After last season’s rebound, the bar feels a lot more grounded: not superstardom, just steady production and real value.
That’s a big change from where things stood after 2024-25. Lafrenière came in with only 45 points in 82 games, then answered with 57 points last season, matching his career high.
The deeper numbers painted an even stronger picture. Evolving Hockey credited him with 14.9 expected goals above replacement, almost twice his previous best of 7.5 in 2021-22, and second on the Rangers only to Adam Fox, who posted 20 xGAR in just 55 games.
That 14.9 mark also stood out league-wide. Among forwards, it ranked 40th in the NHL, right ahead of Leo Carlsson, who is now the league’s highest-paid player.
Lafrenière got there while handling a heavy workload, spending most of his time on the top line and logging his most 5-on-5 minutes with Mika Zibanejad. His most common looks beside Zibanejad came with Artemi Panarin, and later Gabe Perreault after the Panarin trade.
The power play became part of the story too. Lafrenière earned the sixth-highest share of power-play time on the team, trailing Panarin, Fox, Zibanejad, Trocheck, and Miller, and he finished second on the Rangers with nine power-play goals.
He turns 25 in early October, and the expectations around him have settled into a more realistic place. He looks like an established top-six winger, not the kind of franchise-altering superstar people dream about when a team lands the first pick.
For a lot of Rangers fans, that’s no longer a crushing disappointment. It’s just the player they’ve learned to live with: good, useful, and productive without being elite.
That view lines up with the projection models as well. The Athletic’s fantasy projections from Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman have Lafrenière at 84 games, 31 goals, 43 assists, and 74 points.
Evolving Hockey is close behind with 27 goals and 37 assists for 64 points. Both projections also have him on the top power-play unit, alongside Fox, Zibanejad, Miller, and Dorofeyev.
There’s also a clear connection here to Gabe Perreault. Lafrenière is expected to spend a lot of this season alongside him, and the two players’ outcomes may wind up tied together.
If Perreault takes the step Rangers fans want, Lafrenière should have the kind of setup that keeps his numbers climbing. If Perreault stalls, Lafrenière could still drive play well and leave people wanting more from the box score.
The optimism goes a little further than the projection systems. The case for a bigger season is simple enough: the pressure is lighter now, the role is there, and the power-play opportunities should keep coming. That’s why a 70-point season isn’t out of the question, with 30 goals and 40 assists as a realistic target.
At this point, the Rangers seem to know exactly what they have. Lafrenière is probably not becoming a point-per-game force, and he’s not likely to slip far from the 57-point level he just hit.
But if he settles in around 70 points from the top line, that’s real impact. It’s the kind of production that can help the Rangers get into the playoffs and maybe win a round behind Igor Shesterkin.
In Other News...
Rangers New-Look Lineup Just Got An Early Reality Check Against Islanders
The Rangers second preseason game offered a decent snapshot of what their opening-night group might look like, and for a while it looked like the new-look lineup was handling the Islanders just fine. New faces made an early impression, the pace had some bite to it, and New York built a 3-1 lead behind goals from Cole Beaudoin, Pavel Dorofeyev and Taylor Raddysh, with Igor Shesterkin turning aside a few dangerous chances to keep things on track.
But preseason is often less about the scoreboard than the warning signs, and this one had plenty of those mixed in with the positives. There were penalties, a fight between Liam Greentree and Scott Mayfield, and enough momentum swings to remind the Rangers that even a dress rehearsal can get messy fast, especially when a roster still trying to settle into itself starts to lose a little control. [Read more 🡒]
Rangers Rookie Just Made The Opening Night Roster Debate Real
Alberts mits kept building his case in a preseason game against the Islanders, a night that gave the Rangers a closer look at what their 2026 fifth-overall pick can already bring. The 18-year-old logged 15:29 of ice time, flashed on both sides of the puck and looked right at home in the kind of setting young players usually need more time to adjust to, with the Garden spotlight and a veteran lineup on the other side.
Mike Sullivan liked what he saw from mits, especially the way he blended physical play with offensive awareness while showing he can handle NHL pace. The rookie said he felt comfortable with the speed of the game and valued the chance to play at Madison Square Garden, which only adds to the sense that the opening-night roster question is becoming more real by the day. [Read more 🡒]
Rangers Suddenly Need Much More From Noah Laba
The Rangers are heading into the season with a thinner look down the middle after moving Vincent Trocheck to the Utah Mammoth, and that puts a sharper spotlight on Noah Laba than anyone might have expected a year ago. The 23-year-old center, drafted in 2022 after three seasons at Colorado College, showed the kind of steady defensive game and modest scoring touch that can earn trust quickly in the NHL, especially on a team trying to keep its structure intact.
Now the challenge is less about whether Laba belongs and more about how much he can absorb right away. He is in line to open as the third-line center, but the Rangers may need him to do even more if the center picture gets unsettled at the top, giving him a chance to climb into a bigger role sooner than planned. [Read more 🡒]