The Mets open a four-game set against the Marlins at Citi Field on the wrong side of the standings, but with plenty of attention fixed on what happens before the trade deadline on Monday. New York is 46-63, Miami 55-54, and the series arrives after both clubs have shown just how volatile they can be.
Miami comes in fresh off a sweep of the Phillies, which followed a 12-game losing streak. That kind of swing has defined the Marlins’ season. The last seven series they’ve played have all ended in sweeps, one way or the other.
The Mets, meanwhile, nearly had a sweep of their own last night against the Braves before falling 1-0 in a tightly pitched game between Chris Sale and Christian Scott. Matt Olson’s RBI single was the only run of the night. New York also won the matinee of Wednesday’s doubleheader by one run, and the two games before those were blowouts in wins over two first-place teams.
The results don’t change the Mets’ postseason picture, which is already gone, but there is still value in watching players who could be part of the next version of the roster - or who may be dealt in the next five days for players who might be. That’s the real backdrop for this weekend, and it starts with Freddy Peralta, the biggest name likely to move.
The Mets gave up two of their top prospects to get Peralta and Tobias Myers, but a comparable return now seems unlikely. Still, one strong outing could help squeeze a little more out of the market.
There’s also the practical side of all this: the Mets have to manage players who could be on the move without exposing them to injury that would hurt their value. It would not be a shock if more than five players come off the active roster before Monday night’s game.
For fans, this may be the final chance to see some of these names in blue and orange, including A.J. Minter and Tyrone Taylor.
Miami’s season has been strange, but not empty. The club has hovered around .500 while sitting third in the NL East, with a strong June and a rough July wrapped around some notable wins.
Max Meyer is out, but the Marlins are getting production from all over the roster. Griffin Conine has given them a boost since returning from the IL, and Sandy Alcantara is beginning to look more like the pitcher he was projected to be.
The Marlins have also been a thorn in the Mets’ side during past postseason pushes, and while most of those old faces are gone, Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards are reminders that it doesn’t always take a star to cause problems. This is a scrappy, resilient team, and the sweep of Philadelphia only adds to the challenge.
Thursday, July 30: Nolan McLean vs Eury Pérez, 7:10pm EDT on SNY
McLean enters with six straight quality starts. He hasn’t been quite as sharp at every point this season as he was last year, but he’s riding a strong stretch that is starting to look a lot like his 2025 form. His line: 119.1 IP, 142 K, 43 BB, 11 HR, 3.32 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 81 ERA-.
Pérez has not fully returned to his pre-injury level, but he has been steady for Miami. He’s put together quality starts in each of his last four outings and is getting his strikeout numbers back up.
On July 19 against the Brewers, he allowed just one hit and three walks while striking out nine. His next start against the Padres wasn’t as clean, but he still worked seven innings of three-run ball.
Pérez is at 98.2 IP, 106 K, 38 BB, 13 HR, 3.56 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 83 ERA-.
Friday, July 31: Freddy Peralta vs Janson Junk, 7:10pm EDT on SNY
Peralta’s line reads 113.2 IP, 113 K, 48 BB, 17 HR, 4.99 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 122 ERA-. For the Mets, this is almost certainly his final start in orange and blue.
That makes it a strange one: part frustration, part what-if. He hasn’t been the pitcher New York expected when it traded for him, but he still stands as a reminder of what the season might have been if things had broken differently.
He joins Justin Verlander as a recent half-season Mets starter who couldn’t get the team to the postseason.
Junk has logged 73.2 IP with 57 K, 20 BB, 11 HR, a 4.89 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 114 ERA-. He missed six weeks between May and July, and since returning he’s had two decent starts, one rough one, and all of them have been short. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, relies on weak contact, and can lose the zone at times.
Saturday, August 1: Zac Thornton vs Tyler Phillips, 4:10pm EDT on SNY
Thornton has been one of the more encouraging arms in his latest major league stint. A lot of his success has come with help from the defense behind him, and his most recent start against the Braves was his worst since his second call-up, though it still qualified as a quality start.
His numbers: 29.2 IP, 22 K, 7 BB, 2 HR, 2.43 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 59 ERA-. A sub-3.00 ERA probably isn’t a realistic finish line, but if he pitches well enough to look like a Mets fourth or fifth starter in 2027, that would be a win.
Phillips, a Jersey native, has been used in just about every role imaginable for Miami this year: starter, opener, closer, and middle relief. As a starter, he had two strong outings at the end of June, going six innings against the Rangers and seven and a third against the Cardinals.
Since then, his results have been uneven, and he hasn’t been working deep into games. He’s at 84.1 IP, 63 K, 38 BB, 10 HR, 3.52 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 82 ERA-.
Sunday, August 2: TBD vs TBD, 1:40pm EDT on SNY
In Other News...
One Mets Trade Still Feels Perfect Against The Phillies
A small 2019 swap still stands out whenever the Mets and Phillies are measured against each other. New York sent Jason Vargas to Philadelphia for minor leaguer Austin Bossart, and the move fit neatly into a summer when the Mets had more pitching than they could comfortably use after adding Marcus Stroman. It was the kind of deadline-adjacent deal that barely registered at the time, but it helped shape how the two teams finished the year.
Vargas never gave the Phillies the lift they needed, making 11 starts and going 1-4 with a 5.37 ERA. Philadelphia faded to an 81-81 finish, while the Mets closed at 86-76, and the trade has lingered as one of those little roster decisions that seemed minor in July but loomed much larger by September. [Read more 🡒]
Mets First Base Plan Is Already Becoming A Serious Problem
Jorge Polancos first season in Queens has been a rough one, and the timing has made it harder to ignore. The Mets brought him in to help stabilize first base, but he has managed only a .144 average over 26 games and has been even quieter since returning from a three-month injury layoff, leaving the position looking far less settled than the club hoped.
Interim manager Andy Green is still backing Polanco to turn it around, pointing to the hitters track record and the belief that a good stretch is still coming. The problem for the Mets is that they are already operating as sellers ahead of the trade deadline, and with Polancos contract hanging over the roster, there is not an easy escape hatch if the production does not improve soon. [Read more 🡒]
Mets Have One Clear Prospect Priority In Freddy Peralta Talks
Any discussion of a Freddy Peralta deal has to start with the Mets need to balance present value with future upside, and the prospect board is already shaping the conversation. The clubs in the mix run the gamut from the Rays and White Sox to the Cubs, Padres, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Rangers and Phillies, which gives New York a wide set of possibilities if it decides to push forward on a trade.
The names attached to those talks show how many different paths the Mets could take, with several prospects from around the league drawing consideration as potential return pieces. Even with that long list of options, the real question is whether New York can line up the kind of package that matches Peraltas value without giving away too much of the system in the process. [Read more 🡒]