Sean Manaea's spring training journey is off to a rocky start, raising eyebrows among Mets fans. After a promising first outing where he managed to keep the Mets hopeful despite a dip in fastball velocity, his second start painted a different picture. Lasting just 2.2 innings, Manaea allowed six hits and three earned runs, with his fastball velocity barely improving.
In his initial spring appearance against Miami, Manaea's fastball averaged 88.6 mph, and in his latest start against St. Louis, it ticked up slightly to 89 mph.
This is a noticeable drop from his average of 91.7 mph last year and 92.2 mph the year before. With Opening Day looming, this is a trend the Mets will be monitoring closely.
Manaea's arsenal has also seen a shift. Last season, he simplified his pitch selection, dropping from six different pitches in 2024 to just three. The absence of his sinker, cutter, and slider remains unexplained, and with his fastball losing its edge, the situation becomes more concerning.
Velocity isn't the sole determinant of a pitcher's success, but a declining trend is hard to ignore. Manaea's fastball, once a formidable weapon, now risks becoming too hittable at its current speed. An 89 mph fastball would have ranked him alongside Clayton Kershaw at 322nd last season, with only a handful of qualified pitchers throwing slower four-seamers consistently.
The Mets have options to consider. With a six-man rotation in place, they could move Tobias Myers from the bullpen into the rotation, allowing Manaea to serve as a piggyback option behind starters like Kodai Senga.
Alternatively, they could revert to a five-man rotation, keeping both Manaea and Myers in relief roles. Manaea has experience as a reliever, but his $25 million annual salary was meant to secure a top-tier starter, not a bullpen fixture.
As the season approaches, the Mets face decisions that could shape their rotation dynamics. Manaea's performance in the coming weeks will be critical in determining his role and impact on the team's success.