Nolan McLean has forced his way into a Rookie of the Year conversation that looked like it might be headed somewhere else entirely.
The favorite in the National League is Reds first baseman Sal Stewart, and there’s a strong case for him. He went into Wednesday leading all of baseball with 107 RBIs and had added 31 homers.
Cardinals second baseman J.J. Wetherholt had been hanging around the race too, but a wrist injury in late August cost him valuable time and thinned out his challenge.
Still, the Mets have a reason to keep an eye on the award. McLean sits ahead of Stewart in fWAR, along with Wetherholt and Carson Benge, and his 3.1 fWAR has him in the mix as a late-rising dark horse.
That’s notable because his season didn’t begin with this kind of momentum. It started rough, and now he’s got only three to four starts left to keep building a case.
There’s more at stake here than one individual trophy. The Mets’ recent success is pushing them out of the draft lottery, and without a bottom-six finish they’ll automatically drop 10 spots in the draft because they’ve gone past the final luxury tax threshold.
A Rookie of the Year win would also bring a Prospect Promotion Incentive reward, which means a bonus pick after the first round. For a team that has already lost 10 draft spots since 2023 because of payroll, that matters.
McLean’s path to the award is still a steep one, but the numbers give him a lane. He has a 3.08 ERA, an 11-8 record in 28 games, 161 2/3 innings, and 179 strikeouts.
His 133 ERA+ means he’s been 33% better than the average major-league pitcher. Stewart, meanwhile, has a 118 wRC+, which puts his offensive production 18% above average.
The biggest selling point for McLean is how far he’s come since the spring. He carried a 4.21 ERA through the end of May, then turned it around with a 2.27 ERA over his last 16 starts.
That mark ranks fourth lowest among qualified major-league pitchers in that span. If he keeps that level going, the case gets louder.
Getting to 175 innings, reaching 200 strikeouts and keeping the ERA below 3.00 would make the argument much stronger.
If he somehow checks all three boxes, his season would actually grade out better statistically than Jacob deGrom’s Rookie of the Year year in 2014. It would also likely outpace any non-Paul Skenes pitching Rookie of the Year season since Jose Fernandez in 2013.
The problem is the market still sees Stewart as the clear favorite. As of Wednesday, Stewart was listed at -700, with McLean at +600, which works out to a little more than a 14% chance for the Mets right-hander.
Pitchers have a hard time winning Rookie of the Year, which is why the award should probably be split into separate categories for pitchers and position players. There are exceptions, like 2024, when Skenes and Luis Gil both won despite strong competition from Jackson Merrill and Colton Cowser.
Skenes even finished third in Cy Young voting. Another example came in 2022, when Michael Harris II beat out Spencer Strider despite Strider’s 154 ERA+ and 202 strikeouts.
The current race elsewhere points to the same reality. Guardians pitcher Parker Messick is in a difficult spot against Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle, even though Messick’s 4.4 fWAR trails McGonigle’s 4.8 and ESPN gives McGonigle nearly an 80% chance to win.
So McLean’s margin for error is tiny. Being good over the next few weeks won’t be enough; he has to be elite. But after the way his season began, just being in this discussion is an achievement.
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