Why the Mets Should Think Twice About Cody Bellinger
The New York Mets are in a bit of a bind when it comes to their outfield. With Brandon Nimmo now out of the picture, the team is staring down a depth chart that’s more patchwork than polished.
Right now, it’s Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor, and Juan Soto holding down the fort-but no one expects that trio to be the final answer. The front office is clearly on the hunt for reinforcements.
Naturally, a name like Cody Bellinger is going to pop up. He’s a recognizable star, he just had a strong season in the Bronx, and on paper, he looks like a perfect fit. But if the Mets are serious about building a contender, they need to look past the surface numbers and ask a tougher question: Is Bellinger really the right guy for Queens?
The Stats Look Good-Until You Dig Deeper
Let’s start with the basics. Bellinger’s 2025 season with the Yankees was a bounce-back campaign by almost any measure.
He slashed .272/.334/.480, drove in 98 runs, and launched 29 home runs. That’s a solid stat line, especially when paired with a 125 wRC+-a step down from his 135 mark in 2023, but still well above league average.
But here’s the thing: this isn’t a new version of Bellinger. It’s just the latest chapter in what’s been a wildly inconsistent career since his MVP season in 2019.
Since then, he’s only played more than 130 games once (in 2022), and that season ended with a forgettable 83 wRC+. The Mets can’t afford to roll the dice on a player whose production swings as much as his bat speed.
Yankee Stadium Boosted the Power-Citi Field Won’t Be So Kind
One of the biggest red flags here is how much Bellinger benefited from Yankee Stadium’s hitter-friendly dimensions. That short right-field porch is tailor-made for left-handed power hitters, and Bellinger took full advantage.
But Citi Field? That’s a different story.
The ball doesn’t jump off the bat the same way in Queens. What’s a home run in the Bronx often dies at the warning track in Flushing.
And while Bellinger’s 29 homers in 2025 were his most since 2019, that number likely takes a hit in Citi Field-possibly dropping to 25 or fewer. That’s assuming he replicates one of the best power seasons of his career, which is far from a lock.
What’s more, Bellinger made a conscious effort to cut down on strikeouts this past season, posting a career-low 13.7% strikeout rate. That’s great in theory-but the tradeoff was softer contact. And when your power doesn’t travel, soft contact becomes a problem.
Under the Hood, the Metrics Are Worrying
If you strip away the traditional stats and dig into the advanced metrics, the warning signs get louder.
Bellinger ranked in just the 24th percentile in average exit velocity, 36th percentile in barrel rate, and 26th in hard-hit percentage. Those aren’t the numbers you want to see from a player expected to be a middle-of-the-order threat. Those are the numbers of a guy who benefited from favorable conditions-and might be due for a serious regression.
And let’s not forget: Bellinger is now on the wrong side of 30. There’s no reason to believe those batted-ball metrics are going to improve with age.
If anything, they’re likely to decline. That’s not the kind of profile you want to hand a multi-year contract to, especially at a premium price.
Defense Is a Plus-But Not the Right Fit
To be fair, Bellinger still brings defensive value. He’s versatile enough to play all three outfield spots and offers a backup option at first base.
That’s not nothing. But left field is clearly where he’s most comfortable at this stage of his career.
And that’s a problem for the Mets.
What they really need is a true centerfielder. Slotting Bellinger into left field would create a logjam, especially with top prospect Carson Benge inching closer to the big leagues. Benge may not be ready just yet, but he’s part of the long-term plan-and blocking his path with a long-term deal for a player whose best days might be behind him just doesn’t make sense.
The Bottom Line: Let Someone Else Take the Risk
Bellinger might still be a good fit-for the right team. The Yankees could look to bring him back, where his swing fits their ballpark like a glove.
The Phillies might see value in his versatility and power potential. But for the Mets?
This feels like a mismatch.
They need production, not just a name. And while Bellinger’s stat line might catch the eye, the underlying data suggests the Mets would be buying high on a player whose best-case scenario is already baked into the numbers.
It’s tempting to chase the splashy move, especially in a market like New York. But smart front offices know when to walk away. In this case, the Mets would be wise to let someone else pay for the name on the back of the jersey-and focus instead on finding a player whose game actually fits the ballpark, the roster, and the long-term vision in Queens.