A.J. Minter Could Be the Mets’ Bullpen X-Factor in 2026 - If He Stays Healthy
When the Mets inked A.J. Minter to a two-year, $22 million deal last January, the vision was clear: pair the battle-tested lefty with Edwin Díaz and build a bullpen that could slam the door shut on games.
On paper, it looked like a perfect fit - a high-leverage arm with swing-and-miss stuff and postseason experience. But instead of becoming a staple in the late innings, Minter’s first year in Queens was cut short before it could really begin.
Now, as spring training approaches, the conversation around Minter isn’t about whether he can pitch - it’s whether his body will let him.
A Glimpse of What Could Be
Before his season was derailed by a torn lat muscle, Minter gave the Mets a taste of what he could bring to the table. In just 13 appearances, he posted a sparkling 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 11 innings, striking out 14 batters and flashing the kind of dominance that made him a key piece in Atlanta’s bullpen for years.
He was doing exactly what the Mets hoped for when they brought him in - missing bats in high-pressure situations and giving the team a reliable left-handed option in the late innings.
Digging deeper into the numbers, the swing-and-miss metrics were elite. His 34.2% whiff rate and 32.6% strikeout rate put him among the league’s best during that short stretch.
But it wasn’t all smooth sailing. One red flag that popped up was a dip in velocity - his fastball averaged around 94.5 mph, which landed him in the 52nd percentile league-wide.
That’s a noticeable drop from his peak years in Atlanta, where he regularly sat in the upper 90s.
Still, Minter’s cutter remained a weapon. He leaned on it heavily, throwing it nearly half the time, and it did its job - generating weak contact and getting hitters to chase outside the zone. Even without top-tier velocity, his ability to manipulate movement and keep hitters off balance kept him effective.
The Setback - and the Silver Lining
Then came the setback. A torn lat muscle in May ended Minter’s season prematurely, just as he was settling into his role. For a Mets bullpen that was already dealing with injuries and inconsistency, losing Minter was a significant blow.
But here’s the good news: this wasn’t an elbow injury, and it certainly wasn’t Tommy John. A lat tear is serious, but the recovery timeline is far more forgiving.
There’s growing optimism that Minter could be ready for Opening Day - or at the very least, won’t miss much time to start the season. According to reports, there’s a real chance he breaks camp with the team this spring.
That’s huge for a Mets bullpen that’s looking to rebound in 2026 and re-establish itself as a strength.
What to Expect in 2026
So what does a healthy A.J. Minter look like in 2026?
Projections are cautiously optimistic. Steamer pegs him for 56 innings with a 3.30 ERA and a strikeout rate just over 10 K/9. That’s not quite the sub-2.00 ERA dominance we saw in his limited 2025 action, but it’s still the profile of a high-leverage, late-inning arm - exactly what the Mets need to support Díaz and bridge the gap to the ninth.
The key will be whether Minter can maintain the effectiveness of his cutter-fastball combo. His success hinges on the contrast between the two pitches - the glove-side movement of the cutter versus the arm-side ride of his four-seamer. If the lat surgery hasn’t impacted his mechanics, release point, or extension, there’s every reason to believe he can replicate the underlying performance that led to a 3.19 xERA last year.
The Bottom Line
A.J. Minter might not be the flashiest name in the Mets’ bullpen, but he could be the most important. If he stays healthy, he gives the Mets a legitimate left-handed weapon in high-leverage spots - someone who can neutralize tough lefties, miss bats, and take pressure off Díaz.
The stuff is still there. The track record is proven.
Now it’s just a matter of staying on the mound. And if he can, Minter could be one of the biggest difference-makers for a Mets team looking to contend in 2026.