The Mets Are Raiding the Bronx - and Betting Big on Ground Balls Over Gas
Four miles per hour. That’s the difference between a fastball that blows past hitters and one that ends up in the bleachers. And yet, the New York Mets are leaning into a philosophy that says movement, location, and ground balls might just matter more than pure velocity.
Last offseason, the Mets made waves by bringing in Juan Soto. That move signaled a shift in ambition.
But lately, they’ve taken things a step further - not just sharing the city with the Yankees but actively dipping into the Bronx bullpen for reinforcements. First came Clay Holmes.
Now, it’s Devin Williams. And in both cases, the Mets are betting on more than just traditional numbers - they’re banking on makeup, underlying metrics, and the belief that if you can survive Yankee Stadium, you can thrive just about anywhere.
Clay Holmes: Ground Ball Gambler
When the Mets handed Clay Holmes a three-year, $38 million deal and handed him a starting role, it raised some eyebrows - and for good reason. Holmes, 32, tossed a career-high 165.2 innings last season. That’s more than double his previous high, and the wear showed up in a way no pitcher wants to see: on the radar gun.
His fastball velocity dropped from 97.5 mph in 2024 to 93.5 mph in 2025. That’s not a small dip - that’s a red flag.
Especially for a pitcher who relies on power to set up his slider. But the Mets aren’t panicking.
They’re leaning into what Holmes still does at an elite level: generate ground balls.
Holmes posted a 55.8% ground ball rate - elite by any standard - and stranded 74% of baserunners. That tells you he knows how to pitch under pressure and keep the ball out of the air.
But there’s no sugarcoating the fact that his strikeouts dipped to just 7.01 per nine innings. That’s a tightrope act, and it means Holmes has to be nearly perfect with his command and movement.
The margin for error is slim, but the Mets are betting that his sinker-heavy arsenal and ground ball wizardry can keep him effective - even without the gas.
Devin Williams: A Bounce-Back Bet
Then came Monday night, when the Mets opened the vault again - this time for Devin Williams, locking him in on a three-year, $45 million deal. On the surface, paying $15 million a year for a reliever who just posted a 4.79 ERA looks like a reach. But this is where the Mets’ front office is playing a different game.
They’re not looking at ERA. They’re looking under the hood - and what they see is a pitcher who still makes hitters look foolish at an elite level.
Williams ranked in the 99th percentile in whiff rate. That’s not a typo.
He also sat in the 97th percentile in both chase rate and strikeout rate. In other words: hitters still can’t touch him when he’s right.
The inflated ERA looks more like a product of bad luck than bad stuff. And the Mets are pouncing on the opportunity to buy low on a guy who has the tools to dominate late innings.
This is the kind of move that separates reactive teams from proactive ones. Williams isn’t just a bullpen piece - he’s a potential game-changer if he returns to form. And the Mets are betting that their belief in his underlying metrics will pay off big.
A Strategic Safety Net
There’s also a bigger picture here. This isn’t just about adding another arm - it’s about planning for the future.
Edwin Diaz, the Mets’ current closer, could be heading into free agency. And if that happens, the Mets can’t afford to be scrambling for a ninth-inning solution.
Enter Williams. He’s not just a setup man - he’s a potential closer-in-waiting.
With him in the fold, the Mets have flexibility. They can ease the pressure on Diaz, or pivot entirely if Diaz walks.
Either way, they’ve got one of the nastiest right-handed relievers in the game ready to go.
The New Blueprint in Queens
The Mets are clearly shifting their approach. They’re not chasing radar gun readings or shiny ERAs. They’re diving into advanced metrics, trusting their scouting, and targeting pitchers who can thrive in high-pressure environments.
Holmes and Williams are both former Yankees. They’ve pitched in October.
They’ve handled the New York spotlight. And now, they’re part of a Mets team that’s not just spending - it’s spending smart.
This isn’t just about beating the Yankees to free agents. It’s about building a staff that can win in October. And if Holmes can keep the ball on the ground and Williams finds his groove again, the Mets may have just pulled off two of the most quietly impactful signings of the offseason.