Jack Wenninger has put the Mets in a spot where the numbers no longer tell a simple story.
The 24-year-old right-hander was a sixth-round pick out of the University of Illinois in 2023, and his rise through the system has been steady enough to earn real attention. After a strong 2025 with Double-A Binghamton - a 2.92 ERA and 3.36 FIP across 135.2 innings - he opened 2026 in Triple-A and checked in at No. 9 on the organization’s top prospect list. At one point, he even looked like a candidate to move past Jonah Tong on the path to the majors.
But the last stretch has slowed that momentum. Wenninger opened the season with a 2.80 ERA over his first two months, then stumbled to a 6.02 ERA since the start of June.
The talent is still obvious, and he still looks like someone who could fit into a big league rotation. The problem is timing.
If he wants to debut in a Mets uniform, the window is tightening.
That’s where the Rule 5 Draft comes in, and it’s what makes Wenninger such a complicated case. The draft was created to keep teams from stockpiling talent and to give blocked prospects a clearer route to the majors. For players signed at 19 or younger, clubs have to add them to the 40-man roster or risk losing them for $100,000.
Wenninger is eligible for this year’s draft, assuming it isn’t affected by a looming labor stoppage, and it’s difficult to picture him slipping through if he’s exposed. On the surface, his 4.43 ERA and 5.53 FIP don’t jump off the page. Dig a little deeper, though, and there are reasons other clubs would circle his name.
His biggest issue has been strike-throwing. Only 43.3% of his pitches have landed in the strike zone, and his walk rate sits at 13.1%.
Even so, hitters have had trouble doing damage when he’s around the plate. He’s still striking out 22.2% of batters, generating a 28.0% whiff rate, and posting an 82.0% zone contact rate.
The stuff also gives him a real shot. His fastball sits just under 94 mph and carries 17.2 induced vertical break, which makes it play better when he can get it to the top of the zone. His changeup and sweeper have both flashed, with whiff rates above 40% this year.
There was a stretch earlier this season that showed exactly why the Mets still believe in him. Wenninger threw 5.0 shutout innings to push his scoreless streak to 16.2 consecutive innings and cut his season ERA to 1.08.
That kind of performance only sharpens the dilemma. He’s not quite ready for the majors, but if the Mets leave him off the 40-man roster, another team could scoop him up and place him in a competing rotation next year. Add him, and someone else has to come off the roster through an option, DFA, or release - and with the Mets’ financial commitments, that’s no easy call.
And Wenninger isn’t the only name the Mets have to sort through this winter. The pitching staff has already been reshuffled by trade deadline departures and recent injuries, yet his opportunity still hasn’t arrived. By December, the organization may be looking at a decision that feels a lot bigger than one prospect.
In Other News...
Mets Pitching Search May Be Centered On One Obvious Trade Target
David Stearns has already signaled that the Mets know more help is needed next season, even after keeping Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto in place. With the offense anchored and the front office still weighing broader roster changes, the clearest area of focus appears to be the pitching staff, where New York would love a cleaner, more reliable answer heading into 2026.
One name that keeps coming up is Minnesota right-hander Joe Ryan, whose profile fits the kind of search the Mets seem likely to make. An MLB writer pointed to Ryan as a possible fit, noting both his appeal and the Twins recent spending patterns as reasons his situation could warrant attention, which is the sort of setup that tends to put a pitcher squarely on a contenders radar. [Read more 🡒]
Mets Trade Deadline Return Already Faces Pressure To Pay Off Fast
The Mets used the trade deadline to make a low-risk move with a long-tail payoff, dealing Huascar Brazoban to the White Sox in exchange for two prospects who fit different timelines. Zach Franklin looks like the more advanced piece, the one closest to the majors and already on the radar as a Rule 5-eligible arm this winter, while Gabe Davis brings a deeper developmental project after uneven results in Double-A. For a team trying to keep building without losing sight of the present, it was the kind of swap that could look smart if even one side of it comes through.
The pressure, though, is already baked in because the return is being judged almost as soon as it lands. Franklins proximity gives the Mets a faster read on whether the deal can produce help, while Davis has a much longer road and will have to show real progress before this starts to feel like more than a depth gamble. The front office and everyone else watching this club know the window for calling it a win is not endless, with the deadline haul expected to justify itself before the end of 2026. [Read more 🡒]
Mets Could Be Drifting Back Toward A Familiar Rotation Gamble
Under David Stearns, the Mets have not been shy about chasing pitching with upside, even when the path comes with real risk. Thats the backdrop for their latest rotation conversation, as the club continues to weigh aggressive options while other contenders, like the Dodgers, have already made their own splash with Tarik Skubal.
One name that fits the Mets general appetite for talent is Kris Bubic, a left-hander who would add intrigue to their long-range plans. The appeal is obvious enough, but so is the uncertainty, since his health situation makes the timing murky and leaves the club with a familiar question: how much patience are they willing to buy into while shaping a rotation that is supposed to hold up down the line? [Read more 🡒]