The Mets didn’t try to replace Tyler Rogers with Daniel Duarte. Let’s be clear about that.
Rogers landed a deal with the Blue Jays that simply wasn’t in the cards for New York, and Duarte isn’t meant to be a one-for-one swap. But that doesn’t mean the Mets’ move to sign Duarte on Friday night was without purpose - in fact, there’s a lot to like if you know what to look for.
Duarte, who just turned 29, isn’t a household name, but he’s quietly put together some intriguing numbers. Most recently, he threw 19.2 scoreless innings in the Mexican Winter League - a small sample, sure, but a strong one. In the majors, he owns a career 3.99 ERA, and while that might not jump off the page, there’s a key trait that makes him worth a closer look: he keeps the ball on the ground.
In 2023, Duarte posted a 50% ground ball rate over 31.2 of his 38.1 big league innings. That kind of profile fits a mold the Mets have leaned into - pitchers who generate weak contact and keep the ball in the infield.
Just look at what Clay Holmes has done with the Yankees, or how David Peterson has carved out value with the Mets. Even Nolan McLean, with his eye-popping 60.2% ground ball rate, is trending in that direction.
Duarte’s sinker is the star of the show. Opponents hit just .195 against it last season, and it came in with an average exit velocity of 85.3 mph - that’s the kind of soft contact teams dream about.
He’s not overpowering, but he doesn’t have to be. With a pitch like that, he can get outs the old-fashioned way: by letting his infielders do the work.
From a roster standpoint, this is a low-risk, potentially high-reward pickup. Duarte has one minor league option left and was signed to a minor league deal, so he won’t take up a 40-man roster spot unless he earns it. That gives the Mets flexibility - he can start the year in Triple-A Syracuse and work his way up if his Winter League success carries over.
And speaking of Triple-A, Duarte’s numbers there are solid. He posted a 3.34 ERA over 35 innings in 2023, and his overall Triple-A line includes a 4.09 ERA with a 10.2 K/9. That strikeout rate is especially interesting because it adds another layer to his profile - he’s not just a ground ball guy, he can miss bats too.
Now, Duarte isn’t going to step in and anchor the bullpen. But in today’s game, where teams churn through relievers all season long, having a guy who can induce grounders and limit damage is valuable. His .210 batting average against in the majors shows he can handle big league hitters in spurts, and if he can build on that, he could find himself bouncing between Syracuse and Queens as part of the Mets’ bullpen shuttle.
So no, this isn’t about replacing Tyler Rogers. It’s about depth, upside, and finding guys with one elite skill - in Duarte’s case, a knack for keeping the ball on the ground - and giving them a shot to contribute. It’s a smart, calculated move by a front office that knows the season is long and the bullpen is always in motion.