Mets Rotation Hunt Comes With Trade Risks Stearns Cant Ignore

Amidst their search for pitching reinforcements, the NY Mets must tread carefully to avoid overvalued trades that could derail their offseason strategy.

The Mets are going to be in the market for starting pitching this offseason, and there’s no shortage of names for David Stearns to kick around. New York can’t be ruled out for Tarik Skubal, and the club could also look to the trade market instead of, or alongside, a free-agent move.

But just because arms are available doesn’t mean they’re worth the price. Some targets need to be crossed off before the talks even start.

Drew Rasmussen is one of the names that keeps coming up around the Mets, and it’s easy to see why. The Rays already picked up his $20 million option, so he comes with a short-term commitment that fits the kind of move Stearns tends to favor. He’s also coming off a strong season, posting a 2.67 ERA across 30 starts and 172 innings.

Still, there are too many warning signs here. Tampa Bay is never easy to deal with, and the Rays are known for squeezing every last bit of value out of a trade.

Rasmussen also brings injury baggage, and that matters. The biggest concern, though, is the broader market reality: teams are expected to be wary of dealing prospects for one-year rentals because of the possibility that the lockout could affect games in 2027.

That’s the kind of gamble the Mets can’t afford to get wrong. Trading a haul of young talent only to have Rasmussen get hurt, or to see the lockout chip away at the value of the deal, would be a brutal outcome. Too much risk, not enough cushion.

George Kirby presents a different kind of problem. Seattle has pitching depth and needs offense, especially in the outfield, with Randy Arozarena, Taylor Ward, and Victor Robles all hitting free agency. Kirby is the arm most likely to be available, and he still has two more years of team control.

But the recent trend line isn’t pretty. Kirby posted a 4.21 ERA in 2025, then slipped to a career-worst 4.33 in 2026.

His strikeout rate dropped to 20%, down from 26.1% the year before, while his whiff rate fell and opponents hit .285 against him. Those are the kinds of numbers that make a front office pause.

The fit is messy, too. Seattle is looking for a controllable offensive piece, and the Mets don’t really have an obvious match. Even if the Mariners would consider someone like Brett Baty or Mark Vientos, the idea of paying for a pitcher who appears to be trending the wrong way doesn’t make much sense.

Reid Detmers is the most intriguing name of the group, and maybe the most expensive. The 27-year-old left-hander broke out in 2026, and he still has two years of arbitration left.

His trade value was already steep at the deadline, when his ERA sat at 4.03 on August 3. Then he caught fire, making 10 starts from August 4 through the end of the season, throwing 60 innings and putting up a 1.95 ERA.

That surge only pushed the asking price higher. Landing Detmers now would take a serious package, and there’s no guarantee the Mets could get enough value back in the deal to make it worthwhile.

There’s also uncertainty on the Angels’ side. They still don’t have a permanent general manager, their ownership transfer remains unresolved, and it’s unclear whether they want to build around Detmers and Zach Neto or keep tearing things down for prospects.

For the Mets, waiting on that situation could backfire fast. If the Angels drag their feet, the price may stay out of reach while other options disappear. With the lockout set for December 1, that’s a dangerous game to play.

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