The Mets’ outfield picture is starting to take shape, and one name that keeps surfacing is Carson Benge. Whether it’s on Opening Day or a few weeks into the season, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Oklahoma State product is going to get his shot in Queens - it’s just a matter of when, not if.
And with Juan Soto expected to slide over to left field, that door may have opened a little wider for Benge. The 23-year-old has shown positional flexibility since turning pro, logging time across all three outfield spots. But it’s right field - where he spent most of his college career - that could be his ticket to The Show.
Of course, the Mets aren’t handing out jobs. Benge will have to earn his place in a crowded outfield competition this spring.
Tyrone Taylor is in the mix, MJ Melendez - a surprise offseason addition - will get a long look, and Brett Baty could even see time in right now that Soto’s locked into left. It’s a group with upside, but also a fair amount of uncertainty.
That’s where projections come into play, and they’re painting an optimistic picture for Benge. According to ZiPS, the Mets’ top outfield prospect is projected to play in 116 games this season - a strong indication that he’s expected to be a meaningful contributor.
Even more eye-catching? His projected 1.5 fWAR places him right alongside a name that needs no introduction: Mike Trout.
Now, let’s be clear - this isn’t saying Benge is Mike Trout. But it’s certainly eye-opening to see the two side-by-side on a projection leaderboard, even if the paths they take to get to that 1.5 fWAR are vastly different.
For Benge, it’s about being solid across the board. He’s projected to hit .246/.326/.399 with 13 home runs and a 106 wRC+.
That’s the profile of a capable rookie - not flashy, but productive. He’s also expected to provide average defense in a corner outfield spot, which adds to his overall value.
Trout, on the other hand, is projected to post a .235/.353/.441 line with 21 homers and a 119 wRC+. The bat is still there - albeit not at his peak MVP levels - but with the longtime Angels star expected to spend most of his time at DH, his defensive value has all but vanished. That’s a key reason why his fWAR projection has dipped to the same level as Benge’s.
It’s a reminder that WAR - especially fWAR - is a composite stat. It doesn’t just measure how well you hit or field; it weighs everything, including position, playing time, and defensive contributions.
A player like Benge can reach 1.5 fWAR by being solid in multiple areas. A player like Trout can get there by being elite in one area (hitting) while offering little to nothing in others due to age and injury.
For the Mets, the takeaway is simple: they might have a rookie who’s ready to contribute meaningfully right away. Benge isn’t being asked to carry the offense - not with Soto, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor in the lineup - but if he can hold his own in right field and give the team league-average production, that’s a win.
And if the projections are even close to accurate, Benge could be one of the more quietly impactful rookies in the National League this year.