If you're a Mets fan looking ahead to the 2026 season, you're probably feeling a mix of hope and hesitation-and the latest Steamer projections from FanGraphs might tilt you a little more toward the latter, especially when it comes to one key offensive metric: on-base percentage.
Let’s be clear-projection models like Steamer and ZiPS aren’t crystal balls, but they’re well-respected tools that help us get a sense of where a team stands heading into a new season. They blend past performance, age curves, and a host of other data points to forecast how players might perform. And while they’re not perfect (injuries and breakout seasons can throw everything off), they’re usually a decent starting point for discussion.
So what’s the concern here? According to Steamer, the Mets could be in for a rough time getting on base in 2026. And in today’s game, where OBP is still one of the most telling stats in terms of offensive efficiency, that’s not something you want to hear.
Soto Shines, But He's on an Island
Let’s start with the good news: Juan Soto is projected to do exactly what Mets fans hoped he would when he joined the lineup-get on base at an elite clip. Steamer has him pegged for a .413 OBP, which is right in line with his career norms and puts him among the best in the league.
But here’s the problem: there’s a steep drop-off after Soto. Bo Bichette is next in line with a projected .337 OBP.
That’s solid, but not elite. Then you’ve got Francisco Lindor at .336 and Jorge Polanco at .326.
After that, things get murky fast.
Only four Mets hitters are projected to post an OBP north of .320. That’s a tough pill to swallow when league average typically hovers in the .310-.315 range. If the projections hold true, the Mets could be fielding a lineup where more than half the regulars are below average at getting on base.
Luis Robert Jr. Raises Eyebrows
One of the biggest red flags in the projections is Luis Robert Jr., the Mets’ new center fielder. Steamer has him at a .295 OBP over 477 plate appearances-well below the league average and right in line with his recent track record. Over his last three seasons with the White Sox, Robert posted a combined OBP of .299, so this isn’t exactly coming out of nowhere.
Robert brings plenty of tools to the table-power, speed, defense-but patience at the plate isn’t one of them. And if he’s going to hit near the top of the order, that OBP could become a real issue.
Other players with concerning OBP forecasts include Mark Vientos (.310), Luis Torrens (.296), and Tyrone Taylor (.286). Those numbers don’t inspire a ton of confidence if you’re looking for a lineup that can consistently generate traffic on the basepaths.
Power Keeps the Door Open
Now, before we sound the alarm, it’s worth noting that the Mets’ lineup isn’t devoid of offensive upside. In fact, Steamer projects most of their regulars to post a wRC+ over 100, which means they’re expected to be above-average hitters overall. Even more encouraging: six players are projected to post a wRC+ of 115 or better, driven largely by strong slugging numbers.
That tells us this team can still do damage-especially with the long ball. But here’s the catch: power is only as valuable as the runners on base ahead of it.
A solo homer is nice. A three-run bomb changes games.
If the Mets can’t find ways to get guys on, they’ll be leaving a lot of potential runs on the table.
A Test of Patience-and Production
It’s important to remember that these projections aren’t destiny. They’re educated guesses, and sometimes teams blow past them. But they do paint a picture of what the Mets need to prove this season: that they can grind out at-bats, get on base consistently, and give their sluggers the chance to do real damage.
The talent is there. Soto, Bichette, Lindor-these are guys who’ve shown they can carry an offense.
But the supporting cast will need to step up, especially in terms of plate discipline and on-base skills. If they don’t, it could be a frustrating year of solo homers and missed opportunities.
The Mets have made bold moves this offseason. Now it’s time to see if the numbers are just being cautious-or if they’re onto something.