Sean Manaea came into 2025 with a clear mission: solidify himself as a dependable mid-rotation arm for the New York Mets. Instead, the season unraveled into a frustrating cocktail of injuries, inconsistency, and far too many balls leaving the yard. After a promising 2024 campaign that hinted at a late-career resurgence, Manaea’s follow-up year left more questions than answers - not just for the Mets’ rotation, but for his role in it heading into 2026.
Now 34, Manaea enters the new season not as a lock in the rotation, but as a potential bounce-back candidate - a veteran with upside, but also risk. The strikeout stuff is still very much alive, and the metrics back that up. But for him to make a real impact in 2026, he’s going to have to do two things: stay healthy and keep the ball in the park.
A Tale of Two Halves: Dominant Strikeouts, Damaging Home Runs
Let’s start with the good. From a pure command-and-control standpoint, Manaea was excellent in 2025.
He struck out batters at a career-best rate - 11.13 K/9 - fanning 75 hitters in just over 60 innings. His walk rate?
Even better. At 1.78 BB/9, he was limiting free passes better than most starters in the league.
On paper, that’s the profile of a frontline pitcher.
But none of that mattered when the ball kept leaving the yard.
Manaea was tagged for 13 home runs in those 60.2 innings - a brutal 1.93 HR/9 rate that completely derailed his season. That long ball problem inflated his ERA to 5.64, far higher than his 4.39 FIP, which suggests he pitched better than the results showed - but not well enough to escape the damage. The home runs weren’t just a blemish on the stat sheet; they were game-changers, turning otherwise solid outings into losses or forcing early exits.
And while the ERA grabs the headlines, the real issue was availability. Manaea appeared in just 15 games, starting 12 of them.
For a pitcher the Mets hoped would eat innings and stabilize the middle of the rotation, logging only 60.2 innings on the year is a major concern. The Mets needed consistency.
What they got was a pitcher who couldn’t stay on the mound, and when he did, often couldn’t keep the ball in the yard.
Looking Ahead: Redemption or Regression?
So what does 2026 look like for Sean Manaea?
The projections are cautiously optimistic. Steamer, the most bullish of the major forecasting models, sees Manaea rebounding with a 3.87 ERA across 136 innings - a workload more than double what he managed in 2025. The strikeouts are still expected to be strong (9.23 K/9), and even though the walk rate is projected to rise to 2.96 BB/9, it’s still well within acceptable range for a back-end starter.
Other models like ATC and THE BAT are a bit more conservative, pegging him closer to a 4.10-4.13 ERA, but the message is consistent: Manaea’s 2025 struggles were likely the result of a small sample size, some bad luck, and a homer problem that may not be permanent.
If he can bring the home run rate back to earth - even just a little - and maintain his elite strikeout-to-walk ratio, he could easily re-establish himself as a valuable piece in the Mets' rotation. He’s not going to be the innings-eating workhorse he once was, but he doesn’t have to be. What the Mets need is a reliable arm who can hold down the back end of the rotation and bridge the gap to the bullpen without imploding.
High Risk, High Reward
There’s no sugarcoating it: Manaea’s floor is lower than ever. If the home run issues persist and he can’t stay on the field, the Mets could be staring at an expensive lefty reliever who can’t be trusted in high-leverage innings.
But the ceiling? It’s still intriguing.
A veteran lefty who misses bats at an elite rate, keeps the walks down, and can give you 130+ innings? That’s a valuable asset - especially for a Mets team that’s looking to stabilize its rotation and push back into contention.
Manaea doesn’t need to be an ace. He just needs to be healthy, effective, and available.
If he can do that, 2026 might be the season he finally delivers on the promise the Mets saw when they brought him in. And if the projections are any indication, there’s still plenty of reason to believe he’s got something left in the tank.