The Mets watched three potential offseason targets slip away this past weekend, and while none of the moves broke the bank, one name in particular stands out: Michael King. On paper, this seemed like a match made for Queens.
A short-term deal, a pitcher with upside, and a price tag that didn’t scream overpay. But in the end, King is headed west, signing a three-year, $75 million deal with the San Diego Padres.
So why did David Stearns and the Mets pass on a pitcher who checked so many of their boxes?
Let’s start with the contract. King’s deal with San Diego includes an opt-out after just one season - a detail that complicates things for a team like the Mets, who are trying to build toward sustained success rather than take a one-year swing. That opt-out, combined with the penalties tied to signing a player who declined a qualifying offer - namely, the loss of two draft picks and $1 million in international bonus pool money - made the risk far greater than the reward.
There’s also the matter of track record. King finally broke through as a starter in 2024 after years of being underutilized by the Yankees.
He showed legitimate flashes, no doubt, but 2025 brought some regression and durability concerns. He made just 15 starts this past season, and while his stuff still played, the overall production didn’t scream ace.
His 3.53 ERA, while respectable, was only marginally better than Clay Holmes’ 3.44 - and Holmes isn’t commanding $75 million.
From the Mets’ perspective, it’s easy to see why they hesitated. There’s no denying King would’ve been a valuable addition to the rotation, especially on a short-term deal. But when you factor in the opt-out, the draft pick penalties, and the uncertainty around his durability, the risk profile changes dramatically.
San Diego is betting on upside - and they might be right. King has the tools to be a frontline starter if he stays healthy and keeps building on what he showed in 2024. But for the Mets, who are trying to reshape their roster with an eye toward long-term sustainability, this was a gamble they weren’t willing to make.
It’s a tough pill to swallow for Mets fans hoping to see more aggressive moves this winter. King looked like a fit, and the price tag didn’t seem outrageous.
But dig a little deeper, and it’s clear the front office made a calculated decision. They’re playing the long game - and in this case, that meant letting a tempting target walk.