Mets Offseason May Come Down To One Risky David Stearns Bet

Deck: As the Mets aim to strengthen their lineup for the next season, leveraging trade opportunities could be their most effective strategy amidst a shaky free agent market.

The Mets have spent years using cash to solve problems, but this winter may call for a different kind of spending. With Steve Cohen backing the operation, the club has been more willing than most to attack free agency and preserve its farm system. Now, though, the market is thin enough that David Stearns may have to lean harder on the trade route to fill the holes that matter most.

That’s especially true at first base. The free-agent board doesn’t offer much that feels clean or convincing.

Milwaukee’s Jake Bauers sits near the top after setting a career high in home runs, but he also comes with a qualifying offer attached, and paying that price for a player who had his best season at 31 is a tough sell. Ty France could get paid off a strong year in San Diego, while Alec Bohm reads more like a middling answer than a difference-maker.

The rotation has a better headline option in Tarik Skubal, and the Mets should and will pursue him. But even if they land him, the rest of the free-agent class is littered with risky bets on players coming off outlier seasons or cheaper options that don’t really change the shape of the roster.

That’s why a trade for another starter makes so much sense. Minnesota ace Joe Ryan is one name that fits the idea, especially if the Mets want to build toward a postseason rotation that could also include Nolan McLean and Christian Scott.

First base offers similar possibilities on the trade market, and the list is more appealing there than in free agency. Houston’s Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson, and even Kansas City’s Vinnie Pasquantino all sit in the mix as possible targets, with Pasquantino representing the bigger swing that would require more convincing from Stearns.

The Mets also have the kind of depth that can make those deals possible. A strong second half from the farm system, plus the returns from deadline sales, gives Stearns room to move pieces without stripping the roster bare. Brett Baty and starting pitcher Zac Thornton are the sort of controllable big leaguers that can help bring back players closer to free agency for clubs looking to balance their own books.

Middle infield and rotation depth are the two areas where the Mets can really work from strength, and that could make them a natural partner for teams that don’t want to hand out major free-agent money to players like Jazz Chisholm or Freddy Peralta. Stearns has already shown a willingness to chase bigger swings through trades, including the Mets’ deal for Peralta last year, and one bad outcome won’t necessarily change that approach if he believes the value is there.

At this point, the message is pretty clear: the Mets should reserve the long-term free-agent commitment for Skubal, and only Skubal. If the alternative is overpaying for a first baseman like Bohm, the trade market looks like the smarter place to hunt for impact. Paying with talent may be the better bargain than paying with cash.

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