Why the Mets Never Kicked the Tires on Kazuma Okamoto-and Why That’s Still a Head-Scratcher
In a winter where just about every available name was linked to the New York Mets-if you had a pulse and a bat or an arm, you were probably in the rumor mill-there was one surprising omission from the conversation: Kazuma Okamoto.
Heading into the offseason, Okamoto looked like a natural fit. A standout in Japan with legitimate power and defensive chops, he was part of a trio of NPB stars making the jump to MLB, alongside Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai.
For a Mets club looking to add offensive depth and defensive versatility at the corners, Okamoto’s profile should’ve at least warranted a conversation. But from all indications, that conversation never happened.
And that’s what makes this so puzzling.
A Versatile Corner Bat Who Never Got a Look
Okamoto is primarily a third baseman, but many scouts and analysts see him projecting more comfortably at first base in MLB. That would’ve worked just fine for the Mets, who have been juggling options at both corners and could’ve used a player with the flexibility to shift between the two.
But as the offseason unfolded, not only did Okamoto fall off the radar-he never really made it onto the Mets’ radar to begin with. Despite the team’s wide-reaching interest in available bats and arms, there was no real buzz connecting them to Okamoto. And with the Blue Jays ultimately signing him to a four-year, $60 million deal, the fit looks even more curious in hindsight.
The Deal: Manageable Years, Reasonable Money
Let’s break it down. Okamoto’s deal with Toronto averages out to $15 million per year over four seasons.
That’s not exactly breaking the bank, especially for a Mets team that’s been willing to spend when the right player comes along. Even if the front office, led by David Stearns, had concerns about the length of the deal, a shorter-term offer at a higher AAV-say, $20 million annually over three years-wouldn’t have been out of character for a team with their resources.
So what gives?
The Numbers Game: Projected Production vs. Other Options
FanGraphs projects Okamoto for a 112 wRC+-solid, but not elite. That puts him in the same statistical neighborhood as free agent Ryan O’Hearn and just a tick below Jorge Polanco, who ended up with the highest AAV of the group at $20 million per year for two seasons.
Polanco, in fact, edges out Okamoto with a projected 116 wRC+, and even ranks slightly ahead of Willson Contreras and internal option Mark Vientos, both sitting around 115. The Mets reportedly explored both Contreras (via trade) and Vientos (in-house), ultimately leaning toward Polanco, whose ability to play beyond first base gave him added value.
That positional flexibility clearly mattered. And while Okamoto has some defensive versatility, it’s not quite on the same level as Polanco’s.
Still, when you’re operating in the 112-116 wRC+ range, the difference isn’t massive. Which makes the total lack of interest in Okamoto even more confounding.
What Might’ve Spooked the Mets?
Let’s be honest-any time a player makes the leap from NPB to MLB, there’s an element of the unknown. The pitching is tougher, the velocity is higher, and the adjustment period is real. Murakami’s deal, for example, came in lower than many expected, largely because of concerns about how his bat would translate against MLB arms.
It’s possible the Mets saw similar red flags with Okamoto. Despite his proven production in Japan, he’s still an untested commodity in the majors. And for a front office that’s clearly prioritizing certainty and positional flexibility, that might’ve been enough to steer them away entirely.
Still, in an offseason where the Mets were linked to almost every bat on the market, the fact that Okamoto didn’t even merit a serious look remains one of the more under-the-radar mysteries of the winter.
Whether that decision proves wise or shortsighted will play out over the next few seasons. But if Okamoto starts mashing in Toronto, don’t be surprised if Mets fans start asking the same question: Why didn’t we even consider him?