When Ron Darling talks pitching, it’s worth tuning in. The former Mets ace and current analyst recently joined Jon Heyman’s podcast The Show and offered up an intriguing idea for New York's offseason strategy-especially if the team misses out on top target Kyle Tucker. Darling floated Zac Gallen as a potential pivot, and while he didn’t exactly gush over the left-hander Framber Valdez, his Gallen pitch had some logic behind it.
Gallen’s coming off a rocky season-no sugarcoating that. A 4.83 ERA over 33 starts isn’t what you’d expect from a guy who’s finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting three times.
But there’s more to the story. His second half showed signs of life, even if it didn’t fully erase the blemish of a career-high 31 home runs allowed.
For context, his previous high was 22. That jump in long balls did a lot of the damage to his stat line.
Still, Darling sees value here. Gallen’s profile suggests he could be open to a shorter-term deal, maybe a two-year contract with an opt-out after the first season. That kind of flexibility could appeal to a team like the Mets-if they’re willing to swallow the price tag that comes with it.
And that’s where things get complicated.
Because Gallen turned down a qualifying offer, any team that signs him-especially a big spender like the Mets-pays a steep penalty. We’re talking two draft picks and $1 million in international bonus pool money. That’s not pocket change, especially for a pitcher who might be gone after one year.
Valdez would come with the same QO penalty, but the thinking is different there. A longer-term deal, even just four years, makes the draft pick loss more digestible.
With Gallen, it’s a one-year gamble plus a significant cost in future assets. That’s a tough pill to swallow if he doesn’t bounce back.
The Mets, to their credit, have already started working the margins. They traded prospect Franklin Gomez to acquire an extra $1.5 million in international bonus pool money-a move that could help offset the financial hit of signing a QO-tagged free agent.
But the draft picks? Those are harder to replace.
And they add up.
Still, if the front office isn’t planning to trade away top prospects for established big leaguers, then signing a guy like Gallen starts to make some sense. Sure, he’ll cost more in annual salary than someone like Freddy Peralta, but you’re giving up future unknowns-draft picks-rather than known quantities you’ve already developed. It’s a classic case of “the devil you know versus the devil you don’t.”
This is the kind of decision that keeps front offices up at night. The Mets didn’t blink when it came to Juan Soto last offseason, and they seem willing to pay the price for Tucker.
But Gallen? That’s murkier.
His market is tough to pin down. One projection has him at $18.7 million annually over four years, but projections are just that-educated guesses.
For example, Ranger Suarez was pegged at $161 million over six years and ended up with $130 million over five. If the Mets go the two-year route with Gallen, they’re probably looking at something in the $20-25 million AAV range, and likely toward the higher end.
Then there’s the draft pick cost. If the Mets sign Gallen, they’d lose their second- and fifth-highest picks.
In 2022, that would’ve meant giving up Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat (who didn’t sign initially but was re-drafted the following year). In 2023, it would’ve been Sproat again and Wyatt Hudepohl, with A.J.
Ewing right behind as a comp pick for losing Jacob deGrom.
That’s not an insignificant haul to sacrifice for a pitcher coming off a down year.
And Gallen isn’t the only option. Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt are also available, and neither would cost any draft pick compensation.
With them, the questions are more about health and, in Bassitt’s case, age. But the upside is you keep your draft capital intact.
Darling’s take on Gallen makes sense in a vacuum. He’s a durable arm who can give you 30 starts and might be looking for a prove-it deal.
But the penalties attached make it a tougher sell-especially if he ends up being a one-and-done. If a package built around prospects like Sproat and Williams could land you someone like Peralta, the Mets might be better off going that route.
Bottom line: Gallen’s a viable option, but only if the Mets strike out on bigger names and are willing to live with the cost-not just in dollars, but in the kind of long-term assets that shape a franchise’s future.