The Mets made headlines in a hurry this week, pivoting from a failed pursuit of Kyle Tucker to landing Bo Bichette in a deal that’s as player-friendly as they come. The 27-year-old shortstop turned down a longer-term offer from the Phillies to sign with New York for three years and $126 million-with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. That structure says a lot: Bichette is betting on himself, and the Mets are taking on most of the risk.
Let’s start with the player. Bichette is no stranger to the spotlight.
His World Series home run last fall nearly swung the series, and it wasn’t a fluke. Since debuting in 2019, he’s been one of the more consistent offensive shortstops in the game, putting up a 120 wRC+ across his career and topping 3.8 fWAR in all but one season.
That one down year? 2024, when a nagging calf injury limited both his availability and his effectiveness.
When healthy, Bichette is a high-contact, high-average hitter with legitimate pop-an offensive profile that’s becoming increasingly rare at a premium position.
But Bichette isn’t your typical modern hitter. He swings a lot-his swing rates are near the top of the league-and chases more than most, with chase rates around the 10th percentile.
A decade ago, that would’ve been a red flag. Today, with more refined data and tools like SEAGER to evaluate swing decisions, we can see that Bichette’s aggression works for him.
He hunts pitches he can drive and does enough damage when he connects to make the approach viable. His consistently high BABIP used to raise eyebrows, but the batted ball metrics back it up-he’s got a knack for finding open space.
Still, there are concerns. His swing decisions could be more selective, and his batted ball profile shows a low pull rate in the air-just 6.8%-which limits his power ceiling.
More notably, there are signs of physical decline. His exit velocities have ticked down, both in terms of max EV and 90th percentile, and lower-body injuries have become a theme.
The calf injury in 2024 was followed by knee issues last season. That’s not what you want to see from a player whose offensive value is built on bat speed and lower-half explosiveness.
Then there’s the defense. Bichette has long been a below-average shortstop, and in recent years, the metrics have moved from “below average” to “unplayable.”
That’s not a direct issue for the Mets-Francisco Lindor isn’t going anywhere-but it does complicate where Bichette fits. He’s expected to shift to third base, a position he’s never played professionally.
While he’ll likely be serviceable there, it’s still a gamble.
And that brings us to the roster fit. Heading into this move, the Mets had a solid infield: Brett Baty at third, Lindor at short, Marcus Semien at second, and Jorge Polanco at first.
Their most obvious need was in the outfield. So adding another infielder-and pushing Baty into a utility role-feels like a head-scratcher.
It’s not that Bichette isn’t a good player. He is.
But this isn’t a clean plug-and-play situation. It’s a reshuffling that doesn’t clearly make the team better in the areas where they needed help most.
Financially, this is a major commitment. The $42 million average annual value is steep, and the opt-outs tilt the leverage heavily in Bichette’s favor.
If he bounces back and puts up a strong 2026 season, he can walk away and re-enter the market as a 28-year-old free agent with no qualifying offer attached. If the injuries persist or the defensive transition doesn’t work, the Mets are on the hook for the full deal.
It’s a high-risk play with limited upside control.
Now, this move might make more sense in the bigger picture. If the Mets flip Baty in a trade for an outfielder or a front-line starter-names like Jarren Duran, Tarik Skubal, or Cole Ragans have been floated-it could reshape the roster in a way that justifies the Bichette signing.
Or maybe they add another bat and lean into positional flexibility, turning Baty into a super-utility weapon a la Jeff McNeil. But as it stands today, this feels like a move that doesn’t quite align with the team’s most pressing needs.
And then there’s the context. It certainly looked like the Mets were confident in landing Kyle Tucker.
Steve Cohen’s social media presence hinted at something big, and missing out-again-after that kind of public posturing doesn’t help the team’s perception. Declining to give Tucker a record-setting AAV is a defensible baseball decision.
But coming up short after making it look like a done deal? That’s a tougher pill to swallow, especially when it’s not the first time.
The Mets are a smart organization with a front office that’s earned respect around the league. They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to long-term planning.
But even with that in mind, this move raises more questions than answers. Bo Bichette is a talented player with a high ceiling, but this contract structure, the positional fit, and the timing all make it feel like a move made more out of urgency than strategy.
It’s not a disaster-but it’s hard to call it a win.