Tarik Skubal’s arbitration victory - securing $32 million instead of the $19 million the Tigers filed - is sending a clear message across front offices: if you wait too long to pay your young talent, the bill might come due in a big way. It’s a reminder that locking in players early, before they reach their peak earning years, can be a smart hedge against the arbitration process ballooning their value.
Just look at what the Milwaukee Brewers did with Freddy Peralta. They extended him early, bought out some risk, and now they’re reaping the rewards.
In 2026, Peralta is set to make just $8 million - a fraction of what he’d command on the open market. That extension didn’t just give them cost certainty; it also helped them land two top-100 prospects when they decided to move him.
That kind of control is valuable currency in today’s game.
Now shift your eyes to Queens. The New York Mets are in a very different financial universe than Milwaukee, but that doesn’t mean they’re rushing to copy the Brewers’ playbook.
Skubal’s win shouldn’t push them into reaction mode. A player like Nolan McLean is still years away from even sniffing a salary north of $30 million.
And with the Mets already deep into luxury tax territory - every extra dollar now costing them 110% in penalties - they’re understandably cautious about giving raises to players still earning the league minimum.
So don’t expect a wave of long-term deals for the Mets’ young core anytime soon. Under Steve Cohen’s ownership, we haven’t seen a true early extension for a rising talent still in pre-arbitration.
Tomas Nido and Jeff McNeil both got extensions, but they were older players in very different situations. Someone like Carson Benge might be a more likely candidate for an early deal, but even that feels like a long shot given the team’s current approach.
From a pure numbers standpoint, it just doesn’t make much sense for the Mets to tack on extra payroll unless it’s absolutely necessary. They can always reward breakout seasons with modest raises - say, bumping McLean to $1 million in 2027 if he builds on a strong 2026. That’s a manageable increase from the $820,000 league minimum he’s set to earn.
There’s also a philosophical element at play here. David Stearns, now overseeing baseball operations in New York, has shown a clear preference for flexibility over long-term commitments - especially when it comes to starting pitchers.
That mindset likely extends to young players, too. Early extensions can be a smart way to lock in value, but they also carry risk.
A player who flashes early promise can just as easily plateau or struggle with injuries. Having an “escape hatch” - the ability to pivot quickly if things go south - is a big part of the appeal of staying year-to-year.
And then there’s the looming uncertainty of the expiring CBA. With a new agreement on the horizon, committing to long-term deals now could come with unintended consequences down the road. Until the league and union hammer out the next framework, teams like the Mets have every reason to tread carefully.
The Mets’ current estimated luxury tax bill sits north of $82 million. That’s real money, and it makes even a modest raise - say, increasing a young player’s salary from $1 million to $5 million - feel a lot heavier when the penalties kick in.
That $5 million becomes $11 million in real cost. It’s not that the Mets can’t afford it.
It’s that they’re choosing to spend smart, not just spend big.
In the end, it’s not about being cheap - it’s about being strategic. The Mets have shown they’re willing to open the checkbook when the time is right.
But when it comes to young players still earning the minimum, the front office is playing the long game. And for now, that means staying the course.