The Mets’ miserable stretch against the Orioles did more than add three losses to the ledger. It also nudged their place in next year’s draft picture in a way that could matter a lot once the season ends.
After Wednesday night’s defeat, New York dropped to 69-83, which puts the club sixth from the bottom in MLB with 10 games left. That matters because of the 10-pick penalty attached to the Mets’ first selection under the Competitive Balance Tax rules. Since the club exceeded the second surcharge threshold, the only way to avoid that punishment next summer is to land a first pick inside the top six.
There’s another layer to the equation, too. The Giants, who are sitting with a worse record than the Mets, can’t pick better than 10th because teams that pay into revenue sharing aren’t allowed to land in back-to-back lotteries. Remove San Francisco from the mix, and New York’s odds of getting into that top-six range get a little better.
For now, the Mets are in that awkward middle ground: not bad enough to fully control their fate, but bad enough that the final stretch is going to matter in the draft order. Before the trade deadline, they were on pace to finish with one of the worst records in baseball. Since then, though, they’ve gone 22-17, which works out to a 91-win pace over a full season.
That late push has been about more than just the standings. Interim manager Andy Green has helped keep the group locked in even as the playoff race slipped away, and the younger players have shown enough to suggest the club has something to build on heading into next year.
Still, the draft angle is impossible to ignore. The Mets have had some recent hits in the first round, with Carson Benge making a strong case for the National League Rookie of the Year Award this summer. But they’ve also had misses, and the cost of falling 10 spots in the order is easy to see.
The 2023 draft is a good example. New York took high school infielder Colin Houck with the 32nd pick after the penalty dropped them down.
Three full seasons later, Houck is still in High-A. In 153 games there, he’s hitting .207 with a .608 OPS.
If the Mets hadn’t been pushed back 10 spots, Colt Emerson, taken No. 22 by Seattle, and George Lombard Jr., taken No. 26 by the Yankees, would have been available - and both made their MLB debuts this season.
Of course, the draft doesn’t always follow the obvious script. Teams can still uncover a difference-maker later in the first round, and David Wright is the classic Mets example, going 38th overall in 2001. But the higher the pick, the more talent the scouting staff gets to sort through, and that’s the edge New York is chasing.
The final answer may not come until the last day or two of the season. After four games against the Phillies at Citi Field and a three-game series with the Rangers in Texas, the Mets close the year on the road next week against the Nationals.
Washington enters Thursday tied with the Mariners for the sixth-worst winning percentage in MLB, one spot behind the Mets. The Royals are a few games ahead of New York in the race for the No. 4 spot.
As of Wednesday night, Tankathon gave the Mets a 63.2% chance to land in the top six, with an 8.72% shot at the No. 1 pick.
None of that changes how the Mets say they want to play the rest of the way. They’re trying to win every night and finish strong. But over these final 10 games, the draft order is very much in play, and that makes the rest of this season worth watching for reasons beyond the box score.
In Other News...
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Steve Cohen then stepped in to push back, saying Stearns was with him in the dugout before a game. It was a small detail, but the kind that tends to land with extra weight when the team is under a microscope, because for Mets fans the bigger issue is not just whether Stearns was physically around, but how visible and accountable the baseball operation feels while the results remain uneven. [Read more 🡒]
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The good news from the clubhouse was encouraging enough to quiet the worst fears, with the Mets confirming that Young had feeling in and full use of his extremities. Even so, the scene left the game with an uneasy tone, and it is the kind of moment that can linger well after the final out, especially when a routine summer matchup suddenly turns into a medical concern. [Read more 🡒]
Mets Replacement Plan For Jeff McNeil Looks More Uncomfortable Now
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Batys path, though, has made the transition feel less straightforward than the Mets likely wanted. The organization had envisioned him growing into a dependable everyday utility piece, but his current offensive output has not come close to matching the level McNeil once reached as an All-Star. The cost savings are real, but so is the risk that the Mets are asking a player still searching for consistency to fill a much bigger role than he has yet fully claimed. [Read more 🡒]