Michael King has become one of the names hanging around the Mets’ offseason talk for a reason, even if the fit feels more complicated the deeper you look.
For plenty of fans, he’s part of the Tarik Skubal backup plan. That may be because of what he can do on the mound, or because he’s already a familiar face after pitching for the New York Yankees and then landing in the Juan Soto trade, which made him more recognizable than your average San Diego Padres pitcher.
The track record since that move is strong enough to explain the interest. Over his three seasons in San Diego, King has gone 30-22 with a 3.15 ERA. He did miss half of the 2025 campaign, though that’s always part of the deal with pitchers.
The concern is less about whether King can help and more about what the warning signs say about the long haul. As Foolish Baseball noted on X, King belongs to a group of pitchers whose strikeout trend should make the Mets pause.
“Michael King's strikeout rate has decreased each of the last four seasons. Here are the only other pitchers to do so, as well as their 2026 ERA (min. 50 IP)
- Zac Gallen (6.07)
- Seth Lugo (5.17)
- Taylor Rogers (4.33)
- Aaron Civale (4.20)
A warning sign for his free agency?”
Strikeouts don’t tell the whole story, but they matter. Fewer strikeouts mean more balls in play, and more balls in play mean more chances for damage.
Looking at King over the last three seasons makes the trend hard to miss. He has dropped from 10.4 K/9 to 9.3 K/9 to 7.7 K/9 last year, and that came in a season when the Mets’ infield defense was questionable.
That doesn’t make King a bad pitcher, and it doesn’t mean he’s destined to follow the same path as Zac Gallen, Seth Lugo, Taylor Rogers or Aaron Civale. It does, however, suggest a longer deal could turn sour quickly.
Last season, King finished in the 38th percentile in strikeouts and the 40th percentile in walks. Outside of soft contact and a low hard-hit rate, his Baseball Savant page reads as pretty average.
Average pitchers have value. The question is whether King will cost like one.
A fourth or fifth year on a contract could age badly in a hurry. Three years feels like the safer bet, and that’s been the limit David Stearns has set for free-agent pitchers so far, with Skubal standing as the obvious exception.
At first glance, King’s case looks clean enough. The ERA has held steady while the underlying trends have slipped. That’s where the Mets have to decide whether the warning sign is loud enough to matter.
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