There’s no shortage of debate around the Mets’ offseason priorities, but the broad outline is simple enough: the rotation needs help. The real argument is over how New York should attack it.
On one side is Tarik Skubal, the two-time Cy Young Award winner who would instantly change the shape of the roster. On the other is Michael King, a pitcher who would cost far less and could give the Mets more room to build out the rest of the staff.
Both are impact arms. Both would help.
The difference is how much the Mets are willing to spend for the ceiling they want.
Skubal is the bigger swing, and it comes with a massive price tag. His projected deal carries an average annual value of $44 million, a number that would reshape the Mets’ books for the next eight-plus years. That matters because New York already has major money tied up elsewhere, including Juan Soto at a $51 million annual luxury-tax hit through 2039, Francisco Lindor at $34.1 million per year through 2031, and Bo Bichette at $42 million over the next two seasons, with an opt-out available after 2027.
That kind of commitment naturally raises questions about flexibility. Adding Skubal could make it harder to chase other big names, and those concerns would only grow if MLB ever put a salary cap in place.
But the Mets’ long-term picture is not as cramped as it first looks. Their payroll is currently around $280 million committed for 2027, yet that number is expected to fall sharply after that.
By 2029, the Mets’ payroll would be around $106.2 million. And if MLB’s most recent salary-cap proposal - a $258.2 million ceiling beginning in 2028 - ever became reality, New York would still be in a favorable spot with Skubal on the roster.
Even so, King has a real case. His projected contract would come in at nearly half of Skubal’s annual cost, and that savings could let the Mets add another starter such as Clay Holmes. In that scenario, New York could land two meaningful rotation pieces instead of one headline move and a cheaper fallback option.
That’s the heart of the decision: would Skubal plus a lower-cost arm be better than King paired with another established mid-rotation starter?
King has made a strong push for himself. Three seasons removed from moving from the bullpen to the rotation, he’s settled in as a starter and just turned in what may have been his best season yet, finishing with a 3.21 ERA, 159 strikeouts and a career-high 185 innings.
He backed that up in the postseason, allowing one run over 14 innings. It was the kind of run that suggested he might be ready to step into ace territory.
But that’s also where Skubal separates himself. King has been excellent, but he hasn’t shown the year-to-year dominance that Skubal has already established. That’s the difference between a very good starter and a pitcher who can alter a franchise’s direction.
King would still fit well with Nolan McLean, giving the Mets a dangerous one-two punch at the top of the rotation. But if New York has a chance to land Skubal, the choice is clear.
He isn’t just another starter. He’s the kind of arm that can change what a team looks like for years.
With Soto, Lindor, Bichette and Carson Benge in the lineup, the Mets would have plenty of star power on offense. Skubal in Game 1 of a playoff series would give them the kind of ace that makes the whole operation more dangerous in October.
Winning a World Series still takes more than one arm, but it’s hard to do it without a true front-line starter leading the way. The recent World Series showed that value, with Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski playing pivotal roles in their teams’ success.
Skubal offers that level of certainty. He’d give the Mets that caliber of pitcher for the next five-plus years. King might get there, but he hasn’t done it consistently yet.
That’s why, even with the risk that comes with such a huge contract, Skubal remains the better bet for New York.
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The Mets have been scanning for left-handed relief help, and Darwinzon Hernandez has surfaced as a name worth watching after a stint in Japan that reportedly came with improved performance metrics. A lefty with major league experience and a fresh track record overseas is the kind of low-risk, upside play that can make sense for a bullpen that needs another option from that side.
Hernandez is also in a favorable spot for a team like New York because he still has minor league options, which gives a club some roster flexibility if it wants to bring him in and evaluate him without an immediate long-term commitment. The contract expectation is modest compared with what pitchers with similar numbers usually command, so the question now is less about price and more about whether the Mets decide this is the right place to add another arm. [Read more 🡒]
Mets Face A Bigger Tarik Skubal Battle Than Expected
The pitching market is already starting to take shape, and Tarik Skubal sits at the center of it. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Blue Jays have arranged a meeting with the free agent left-hander, who is widely viewed as the top arm available this winter, putting Toronto squarely in the mix as clubs begin lining up for a chance to bolster their rotations.
For the Mets, that only makes the pursuit more complicated. They are expected to be in the hunt along with the Padres and Dodgers, but Torontos entry adds another heavyweight to a chase that figures to be crowded from the start, especially with the Blue Jays eager to rebuild a staff that was hit by injuries and ended in disappointment in the AL East. [Read more 🡒]
Mets Have Made One Lineup Fix Their Clear Offseason Priority
The Mets have already narrowed one of their biggest offseason questions to a single spot. President of baseball operations David Stearns said adding a first baseman is a top priority this winter, even as Jared Young is expected to remain part of the plan there next season. The idea is not to overhaul the position so much as to give the lineup a more balanced look, with the club wanting a right-handed bat to pair with Young.
New York is expected to pursue that help either in free agency or via trade, with Ty France, Paul Goldschmidt and Alec Bohm among the names in the mix. Elsewhere, the Mets sound comfortable with their internal options, and Marcus Semien is expected to compete for playing time at second base. For a team trying to fine-tune rather than rebuild, first base has become the clearest place to shop. [Read more 🡒]