Tarik Skubal is shaping up to be one of the biggest prizes of the offseason, and the early buzz points straight at a heavyweight fight between the Mets and Dodgers.
That’s the kind of market that fits Skubal’s profile. He has been the top starting pitcher in baseball over the last few seasons, and the resume keeps getting louder. The two-time Cy Young Award winner led the American League in ERA+ in 2024 with a 174, then followed that up with an even better 185 in 2025.
For the Mets, the fit is obvious on the baseball side. They could use another frontline starter to pair with Nolan McLean, and Steve Cohen has shown he’s willing to pay for the right player.
But there’s a catch: New York may not want to go all-in on a massive, long-term commitment. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel said the Mets might prefer a shorter deal, similar to the one they used with Bo Bichette, and that could become a problem if Skubal is chasing a record-setting guarantee.
“Most insiders project the Dodgers and Mets to be serious bidders, but there is some hesitation surrounding the Dodgers given the controversy around the team's ownership,” McDaniel wrote.
“Some thought the Mets might be looking to do a shorter-term deal such as they did with Bo Bichette, which might not work if Skubal is looking to set a record for guaranteed money,” he added.
If New York won’t stretch far enough, that could open the door for Los Angeles. The Dodgers have the financial firepower to make this uncomfortable for everyone else, and Bleacher Report’s Erik Beaston pointed to that spending muscle as a potential separator in the race.
“Their ability to put together big-money deals, on the heels of others to Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, respectively, could be the difference between those two teams signing him, and an outside competitor, such as the Yankees or Braves, popping in and acquiring his services,” Beaston wrote.
So yes, the Dodgers look like the favorite if they decide to go long-term. But this one feels like it could turn into a full-scale bidding war, and the Mets would love to land the kind of arm that can change the mood heading into next season.
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