The Mets may have turned over a lot of the roster over the past year, but that doesn’t mean the winter is going to be simple. In fact, once you start mapping out the 40-man roster, the path to adding help looks tighter than it first appears.
New York is expected to shop for upgrades in the rotation, the setup group and at first or second base. But before any of that happens, the club has to sort through a crowded roster that still carries plenty of moving parts. For this exercise, Bo Bichette is assumed to opt into his current contract, while the Mets are also assumed to decline their $20 million option on Luis Robert Jr., even though a cheaper return could still be on the table.
Behind the plate, the Mets are carrying four catchers on the 40-man: Francisco Alvarez, Luis Torrens, Hayden Senger and Shawn Ross, who was claimed off waivers earlier in the season. Alvarez and Torrens look like the surest holds. Ross was more of a depth add, and since both he and Senger still have options, the Mets could simply choose one and move the other off the roster.
The infield is just as complicated. If Bichette is in the picture for 2027, he and Francisco Lindor become the clear centerpieces.
Jared Young has done enough to stay in the conversation, even if it’s in a first-base platoon role. Marcus Semien also seems unlikely to be jettisoned after one season, especially with Brett Baty able to share second base until Mitch Voit is ready.
That still leaves a few names hanging on the edge. Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, Eric Wagaman and Christopher Morel all sit in the bubble group.
Vientos and Mauricio are out of options, which makes their situations especially precarious. Wagaman, Morel and Vientos also overlap in role, since each profiles as a left-handed platoon power bat, so keeping all three would be redundant.
If Jorge Polanco can handle some first base next year, that only gives the Mets more flexibility to move on from that entire cluster if they want.
In the outfield, the picture is clearer if Robert is out of the equation. That would leave Juan Soto, A.J.
Ewing, Carson Benge and Nick Morabito as the core group on the 40-man. Christian Pache is the only other outfielder besides Robert in the mix, but because he’s out of minor league options, the Mets would likely let him go and find a similar veteran type to replace him.
The rotation side of things has its own layers. Sean Manaea, Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton look positioned to remain part of the 2027 plan. Tobias Myers, who is stretching back out in the minors, also appears likely to be in the picture next season, and prospect Jonah Tong is on the 40 as well.
Tylor Megill adds another wrinkle. The Mets tendered him a contract even though he’ll miss the whole season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s currently on the 60-day IL, so he doesn’t count against the 40-man right now, but if the Mets want him back as rotation depth and tender him another deal, he’ll need to be added back in over the winter.
Two other starters are sitting on the edge. Robert Stock is handling the fifth rotation spot for now, while Justin Hagenman has missed the entire season with a rib injury.
Hagenman still has minor league options, but his 60-day IL status means he’ll need to be restored to the 40-man. Stock, meanwhile, is out of options.
The bullpen may be the messiest part of all. Up to 14 spots on the 40-man are currently tied up by relievers, which gives the Mets a lot to sort through. Devin Williams is a lock to be the projected closer next season, and Kodai Senga’s recent surge as a reliever gives him a strong case to stay in the mix.
Beyond those names, the Mets have a cluster of optionable arms, and performance will matter. Daniel Duarte, Nate Lavender, Jonathan Pintaro and Jefry Yan all have a path to sticking if they keep pitching well. Reed Garrett, like Megill, is on the 60-day IL after Tommy John surgery, and the Mets will likely want him back to deepen the middle relief group.
Then come the true bubble arms: Xzavion Curry, Dedniel Núñez, Chayce McDermott, Cionel Pérez, Dylan Ross, Austin Warren and Jack Weisenburger. Warren and Núñez stand out most from that group. Warren is out of minor league options, while Núñez has just one left and has looked shaky since returning from Tommy John surgery.
There’s also the Rule 5 layer, which always complicates the math. The Mets have several prospects who need protection, with Jefferson Rojas leading the list.
Jacob Reimer, Jack Wenninger and Gary Gill Hill, who came over in the Peralta trade, also figure to be protected. Ryan Clifford is Rule 5 eligible too, but his lack of progress at Triple-A Syracuse this season as a 23-year-old could leave him exposed.
One especially interesting name is Chris Suero. The catcher has speed at Double-A Binghamton and can also handle first and third. If the Mets believe he can help soon as a third catcher, they could add him to the 40-man and make room by designating both Senger and Ross.
All told, the Mets would be looking at 31 spots on their 2027 40-man roster already accounted for, with as many as 15 bubble names still in play. That total includes four minor league additions, which matters because the Rule 5 Draft was skipped during the last MLB work stoppage. Banking on that happening again would be a mistake, so those players have to be treated as real roster commitments.
Nine open spots doesn’t sound like much, especially with this much work still ahead. But that’s before any trades or free-agent additions enter the picture. The arithmetic is tight, yet there should still be enough room for Stearns to maneuver and address what the Mets need.
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