A winter decision is getting simpler for the Mets, and Gary Gill Hill is the reason why.
The 21-year-old right-hander, one of the prospects New York picked up in the Freddy Peralta trade, is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. With a messy CBA expiration hanging over the process, the whole exercise could get a little more complicated than usual, but the Mets still have to treat Hill like a real protection case. He’s only in Double-A, which makes him less obvious than the usual Rule 5 target, yet his recent work has made him a name the team can’t casually leave exposed.
That’s the kind of thing the Rule 5 Draft does. Teams often circle the players who can be hidden: the toolsy outfielder, the glove-first defender, the runner, or the arm that can survive as a bullpen piece.
But the draft has a habit of punishing clubs that assume no one will take a chance. The Mets learned that lesson long ago with Tom Seaver, who was left unprotected in the free agent compensation draft in the 1980s and wound up with the Chicago White Sox.
Hill is forcing a much more straightforward conversation than that. Since arriving in the Mets organization, he has gone from a 4.43 ERA in 15 Double-A starts to a 2-0 record and a 3.63 ERA in four starts with Binghamton.
The strikeout jump stands out just as much: from 6.8 K/9 to 9.7 K/9. Even better for the Mets, he has kept his walks under 2 per nine innings, a trait he also showed with the Rays.
That matters because the Mets won’t be able to shield everyone. They have 26 newcomers eligible for Rule 5 consideration this offseason, and some players will be easier to cut loose than others.
Ryan Clifford, for instance, has struggled for most of the year in Triple-A, and his profile could make him easier to leave unprotected than a pitcher like Hill. A one-dimensional power bat who hasn’t found any consistency at that level is a tougher sell than a right-hander showing real progress.
The Mets are also coming off a reminder that Rule 5 picks can matter. Mike Vasil, who became the last notable Mets player to be taken and then succeed, was grabbed before the 2025 season despite rough numbers in Triple-A.
He posted a 5.30 ERA in 2023 and a 6.04 ERA across a full 2024 season, but after being taken by the Philadelphia Phillies, traded to the Rays, and then traded again to the Chicago White Sox, he found a role as a long man in their bullpen. His 2.50 ERA in 101 innings is no fluke.
New York should have enough room to protect Hill even if some tougher roster calls come first. Non-tenders and releases can clear the way before the 40-man roster gets finalized.
The bigger issue is simply deciding which prospects are worth the spots. Hill has made that one easier.
There may also be a little extra motivation here for the Mets because they just acquired him and want the Peralta return to pay off. That alone isn’t enough reason to protect him. His performance is.
The Mets will get their first look at Peralta since the trade on Tuesday, when he is scheduled to pitch for the Rays. He’s coming off a strong outing in which he threw six innings, allowed two hits, and gave up no runs, so the 2026 version of Peralta looks ready to break.
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