The Mets have already seen enough from one veteran arm to know what he can do in Queens. That’s why the idea of bringing back Clay Holmes makes plenty of sense, especially with Christian Scott, Zac Thornton and Nolan McLean giving the rotation some younger pieces to build around. Even with that group, the depth chart still needs veteran help.
Holmes has reportedly been open to a return, and his New York track record is a strong one: a 3.26 ERA across 42 games, including 40 starts, for the Mets. But MLB insider Jim Bowden, writing at The Athletic, doesn’t see Holmes ending up back in Queens. Bowden lists the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants as the top landing spots for Holmes, and projects a two-year, $44 million deal.
Instead, Bowden’s comparable alternative for the Mets is left-hander Robby Ray, who he has getting a two-year, $45 million contract. That’s where the fit starts to fall apart for New York.
Ray has the kind of résumé that still gets attention. He’s been selected to two All-Star teams and won the 2021 AL Cy Young Award. At his peak, he was the type of strikeout-heavy starter who can mask defensive issues, and that matters for a Mets club that has dealt with inconsistency on defense even with David Stearns’ run-prevention focus.
But the version of Ray now on the market looks a lot different. At 35, he isn’t the same bat-missing force anymore.
He finished 2026 with a 19.9% strikeout rate, a number that sits much closer to Holmes’ 18.6% mark than to Ray’s own prime. The bigger issue is how he’s missing bats less often while also giving up plenty of contact in the air.
Holmes works as a ground-ball pitcher, but Ray posted a 34.1% ground-ball rate in 2026 and owns a career ground-ball rate of 38.2%.
The walks are another problem. Ray handed out free passes at a 12% clip, which becomes a much bigger concern when the strikeout rate is down and the ball is being lifted more often. His 3.59 ERA in 2026 looks solid on the surface, but the underlying numbers tell a less friendly story: a 4.80 xERA, 4.69 FIP and 4.91 xFIP.
Sean Manaea’s numbers, for comparison, were better across the board this season, with a 4.73 xERA, 4.54 FIP and 4.26 xFIP.
The price tag only makes the case weaker. A $22.5 million average annual value for Ray would be a steep bet on a pitcher who appears to be moving into decline. If the Mets are determined to spend roughly $40 million on a starter who isn’t Clay Holmes, there’s another name Bowden mentions that looks more appealing: Casey Mize.
Mize doesn’t bring overpowering strikeout stuff or elite ground-ball numbers either, but he does keep walks in check with a 6.9% rate and is nearly six years younger. Bowden projects him for a three-year, $54 million deal, which is more money overall but works out to a more manageable $18 million per year.
Still, the simplest move is the one that’s already sitting there. Holmes has already shown he can work in New York, and the fit makes more sense than chasing Ray. If the Mets decide to go in another direction, Ray is the one they should steer clear of.
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For a staff candidate, this is about more than swings and mechanics. The Mets need help finding a voice that can steady an underperforming lineup, but they also have to convince people the job comes with enough stability to make it worth taking. In the meantime, the open question is whether the right coach sees a chance to help fix the offense or sees a situation that still looks too unsettled to trust. [Read more 🡒]