The San Diego Padres have given the New York Mets plenty to think about this offseason, but the name that may make the most sense isn’t the one drawing the loudest buzz.
Michael King, Adrian Morejon and Ty France are all obvious Padres free agents to circle, especially with San Diego’s short-term moves and deadline activity leaving a deep group of available players. But Jason Adam is the quieter option here, and maybe the more practical one for New York.
Adam didn’t get nearly as much attention, in part because he missed time last season with an injury. Even so, he still worked in 38 games for San Diego and posted a 2.62 ERA.
That number sits just ahead of his 2.68 career ERA, a mark that dates back to 2018 but really started to rise once he became a Tampa Bay Ray in 2022. The Padres paid a hefty price for him at the 2024 trade deadline, and that was no accident - he came with two and a half seasons of control and a reputation as one of the bullpen’s fastest-rising arms.
That’s why Adam looks like a more realistic Mets target than Morejon.
Since 2022, Adam has been worth 9.2 bWAR with a 2.13 ERA across 300 games. He’s also posted a 0.96 WHIP, along with 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9, and the underlying numbers support the run prevention. He’s turned into an above-average ground-ball pitcher and has consistently generated strong whiff rates, too.
The pitch mix helps explain it. Over the last two seasons, he leaned heavily on his slider, and that pitch produced a 37.3% whiff rate. His changeup was effective as well, sitting at 30.5%.
Still, there are reasons to be cautious. Adam was hit hard in June last season, with seven of his 10 earned runs coming in that month, and he later missed all of July and August plus most of September with a shoulder injury. He did, however, throw 12 scoreless innings in May.
The fastball is another area that raises questions. Adam averaged 95.5 mph on his four-seamer in 2024, but that dropped in 2025 and fell again in 2026 to 93.5 mph.
In the past, it was a pitch hitters struggled to handle, with multiple seasons of opponents batting under .200 against it. Last season, though, they hammered it for an .864 slugging percentage and a .273 batting average.
One answer may be simply using it less. He also has a sweeper, which has worked before, and leaning on that more - or adding another pitch - could help him hold up longer.
The strikeout drop is the biggest red flag. Adam’s 5.8 K/9 last season was easily the most alarming number in his profile.
His 1.3 HR/9 was a bit above league average, though in a shortened year that can be traced to one rough month in June. He also didn’t record a strikeout in 3.1 postseason innings, even while allowing just one earned run.
At this stage of his career, a short one-year deal with a possible team option for a second year makes sense. Spotrac pegs his market value at $8.7 million for one season, which feels like a reasonable estimate.
Morejon could wind up with a qualifying offer, which would cost the Mets two draft picks and international bonus slot money. And if teams see him as either a starter or a closer, his price could climb well beyond what New York should want to pay.
Adam brings a track record, and even with some shaky analytics, he looks like the kind of lower-cost bet with upside that can fit into the Mets’ plan. If the Mets are going to add one of those arms, they can do it - especially if that pitcher comes alongside someone closer to his peak than the other side of it.
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