The Mets knew they were rolling the dice when they handed Clay Holmes a $38 million deal and handed him a starter’s workload. One season in, the results are a mixed bag-equal parts encouraging and concerning.
Holmes gave New York something it desperately needed: innings. But the transition from late-inning weapon to rotation regular came with a cost, and now the question is whether the gamble will pay off in the long run.
A Workhorse with Warning Signs
Let’s start with the good: Holmes took the ball every fifth day and didn’t flinch. He logged 165.2 innings across 31 starts and finished with a 12-8 record.
For a Mets rotation that’s been riddled with injuries and inconsistency, that kind of durability is gold. He gave them stability when they needed it most.
But if you dig a little deeper, the warning lights start flashing. Holmes’ strikeout rate dropped significantly-from 9.71 K/9 as a reliever with the Yankees in 2024 to just 7.01 K/9 in his first year as a starter.
That’s not a small dip. That’s a philosophical overhaul.
Holmes traded strikeouts for efficiency, trying to manage contact rather than overpower hitters. It’s a smart approach for a guy trying to survive a full season in the rotation, but it also leaves a much smaller margin for error.
He’s no longer the guy who can blow a 98 mph fastball past a hitter to erase a mistake. That velocity now sits in the 93.7 mph range-below league average-and it means Holmes has to rely on pitch movement, location, and a defense that can’t afford to have an off night behind him.
The Sinker Still Plays
Fortunately for Holmes, his sinker is still elite. Statcast had it ranked in the 93rd percentile in run value last season, and his ground ball rate (55.9%) was in the 94th percentile.
That’s a recipe for limiting damage. When Holmes is on, he’s a bowling ball-inducing soft contact, keeping the ball on the ground, and cruising through innings with quick outs.
That pitch is the reason he was able to eat innings and stay afloat. It’s the foundation of his new identity as a starter.
But a one-pitch arsenal only gets you so far in today’s game. And that’s where the trouble begins.
The Breaking Ball Breakdown
The biggest issue? Holmes’ breaking stuff just didn’t hold up.
His slider and sweeper-pitches that used to be legitimate out-getters-were ineffective in 2025. The breaking run value ranked in the 10th percentile.
That’s not just below average-that’s bottom of the barrel.
He leaned on the sweeper heavily against right-handed hitters, throwing it nearly a quarter of the time. But without the sharp bite to finish off at-bats, it became more of a liability than a weapon. Hitters weren’t fooled, and when they weren’t chasing, they were punishing anything left up in the zone.
In short, Holmes became a contact manager with one consistent pitch. That’s a tough way to live as a mid-rotation starter in today’s league, where lineups are deeper, more patient, and better at punishing mistakes.
The Path Forward: Find a Putaway Pitch
The good news? Holmes has already proven he can handle the physical toll of starting.
He made it through a full season, took the ball every turn, and gave the Mets valuable innings. That’s no small feat, especially for a guy who was used to pitching one inning at a time.
But if he wants to take the next step-if he wants to be more than just a back-end innings eater-he needs to develop a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch. That could mean refining the sweeper, which still has the potential to be nasty if he can get the shape and location right. Or it could mean leaning more into the changeup, which showed flashes of promise against left-handed hitters.
Either way, Holmes needs a second pitch he can trust when the sinker isn’t enough. Without it, hitters will start laying off the sinker, waiting for something flat and hittable. And in this league, that’s a dangerous game to play.
Bottom Line
The Mets bet on Clay Holmes becoming more than just a converted reliever-they bet on him becoming a reliable, durable starter. Year one showed he’s got the stamina and the mindset to take on that role. But if he doesn’t evolve his pitch mix and find a way to miss bats again, the ceiling on this experiment might already be in sight.
For now, Holmes is walking a tightrope. The Mets are hoping he can find his balance before the fall.