The Mets already have the outlines of a rotation for 2027, and the shape of it starts with a pair of young arms they can build around. Nolan McLean looks like the headliner, Christian Scott has earned his place, and Zac Thornton has forced his way into the picture as well. After that, the Mets will need outside help and a few calculated bets to round things out.
If New York misses out on Tarik Skubal, the front office still has work to do. There are enough possible fits on the market that the club could supplement McLean, Scott and Thornton without overhauling the group. Michael King and Clay Holmes stand out as the kinds of arms that could make sense if the Mets decide to shop in familiar territory.
McLean is the clearest building block of the bunch. In his first full major league season, the right-hander went 12-10 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 3.59 FIP, 128 ERA+, 194 strikeouts and a 3.0 bWAR over 179.2 innings in 31 starts.
That came after his MLB debut down the stretch of 2025, when he opened with a 5-1 record and a 2.06 ERA in eight starts. He had a rough patch earlier this year, but the finish only reinforced the idea that the Mets have their future ace.
For 2027, he projects as the No. 1 starter.
King is the kind of free-agent target that would fit the Mets’ preferred approach if he opts out of his deal with the San Diego Padres. The 31-year-old already has New York experience from his time with the Yankees, and he just turned in a strong season in San Diego.
In 32 starts and 185 innings, he posted a 12-10 record with a 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4.13 FIP, 126 ERA+, 159 strikeouts and a 4.1 bWAR. With David Stearns known for leaning toward shorter pitching deals, King could be a natural fit if the Mets are willing to raise the average annual value.
Holmes is another name worth watching if he reaches the market. The Mets dealt him to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline because he is likely to opt out, and a return would not be out of the question.
He signed a three-year, $38 million contract with New York in the 2024-2025 offseason to convert from closer to starter, and the move paid off. As a Met, Holmes posted a 3.26 ERA in 42 appearances, including 40 starts.
Even after suffering a broken leg in May, he has logged a 3.29 ERA and 2.0 bWAR in 18 starts this season between New York and Chicago. If he is open to coming back, the Mets should push to make it happen.
Scott belongs in the mix after finally getting on the mound again. He missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery late in 2024, but this year he showed enough to lock down a rotation spot.
Across 23 starts and 110 innings, he finished with a 3.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.61 FIP, 105 ERA+, 134 strikeouts and a 1.7 bWAR. Scott was the Mets’ No. 5 prospect and top pitching prospect in their system in 2024, per MLB Pipeline, and the 2026 season gave the club reason to believe he can keep climbing.
He profiles as a solid No. 4 starter for 2027.
Thornton has also earned real consideration after a strong rookie season. The left-hander debuted in late May and kept improving as the year went on.
In 15 starts and 84.1 innings, he went 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 4.51 FIP, 119 ERA+ and 63 strikeouts, while adding 1.7 bWAR. His 5.3 percent walk rate stood out, ranking in the 95th percentile in baseball, per Baseball Savant.
The 24-year-old also improved his nutrition, conditioning and game-planning between outings, and he attacks the zone despite not bringing overpowering velocity. That combination has him looking like a future rotation piece.
Beyond that core, the Mets will need depth, and Sean Manaea and Jonah Tong sit in that tier for now. Manaea’s last two seasons have been rough, and he is due $25 million next year on the final season of his three-year, $75 million contract.
The Mets can hope he gives them something useful in a swingman role, but he cannot be treated like a dependable rotation answer. He is set to make his final start of the season Sunday in the regular-season finale after going 6-7 with a 4.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.44 FIP, 87 ERA+, 141 strikeouts and a -0.1 bWAR over 144.2 innings in 32 appearances and 18 starts.
Tong, meanwhile, is still a work in progress even if the long-term belief is obvious. New full-time manager Andy Green called him a “huge believer” and sees him as a major part of the future, but he also made it clear Tong is expected to start next year in Triple-A and work his way up as depth.
The 23-year-old had a mixed minor league season after posting a 1.43 ERA and 179 strikeouts to lead the minors the year before. In the majors, he recorded a 3.82 ERA across seven appearances and four starts this season.
Right now, he fits as the No. 7 starter on the Mets’ depth chart for 2027.
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Looking ahead to 2027, the pressure on David Stearns is starting to sharpen around the same familiar questions: where the starting pitching comes from, and how much certainty the Mets really have in veteran roster spots. The futures of Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien remain part of that larger picture, and the broader challenge is not just identifying problems but acting on them. The Mets know they will need to keep moving, even if every move carries the risk of getting one wrong. [Read more 🡒]