The Mets are in a period of transformation this offseason, with a roster that looks quite different following trades and free agency departures. Yet, amidst the change, familiar faces remain, eager to shape the future of the team. One such player is Francisco Alvarez, the young catcher who enters his fourth season as the Mets' starter.
Alvarez’s journey has been a rollercoaster. His first three seasons were marked by inconsistency, partly due to a string of unusual hand injuries.
However, the second half of last season offered a glimpse of the talent that once made him a top prospect. He began to shake off the inconsistency that plagued him in 2024 and early 2025, hinting at a resurgence.
Throughout his career, Alvarez has posted a .230/.306/.429 line, with 48 home runs and 143 RBIs. His 105 wRC+ and 6.7 fWAR over four seasons indicate solid contributions, while his defensive metrics place him in the middle tier among catchers, ranking 17th out of 38 qualified players in fielding run value.
Last season marked Alvarez's best offensive performance, as he hit .256/.339/.447, with 11 home runs and 32 RBIs over 76 games. His 124 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR highlighted his offensive growth, though defensively he struggled, with a -6 FRV placing him near the bottom of the league.
The turning point came after a stint in Triple-A. Post-All-Star break, Alvarez returned with a vengeance, hitting .276/.360/.561. He smashed eight of his 11 home runs and drove in 21 RBIs during this period, posting a 157 wRC+-a career-best if extended over a full season.
Injuries have been Alvarez’s Achilles' heel. In 2024, a torn ligament in his left thumb sidelined him for nearly two months. The following year, a broken hamate bone in his left hand and a compromised UCL in his right thumb hampered his play, with the latter requiring offseason surgery.
Looking ahead, FanGraphs’ OOPSY projections see Alvarez maintaining a similar trajectory to 2025, predicting a .242/.324/.447 line with 20 home runs and a 117 wRC+. His projected 3.0 fWAR would match his 2023 peak, with a potential defensive rebound as his hand injuries heal.
The 2026 season is filled with questions for Alvarez. Can he sustain the offensive surge from the latter half of 2025?
Will injuries continue to be a thorn in his side? Can he reclaim his defensive prowess?
If Alvarez can find the right balance, it could mark a significant step forward for the Mets’ promising catcher.