Paul Blackburn may be the former Mets arm who cashes in this winter, and Jim Bowden thinks the payday could be a lot bigger than many expect.
Bowden’s ranking of the top 40 MLB free agents put Freddy Peralta at No. 2, behind only Tarik Skubal, but the more interesting money question for Mets fans may be Blackburn. Bowden projected a two-year, $22 million deal for the right-hander, with the Yankees listed as the only fit he named. That would line up with a reunion after New York got the most out of him in 2026.
The comparison to recent Mets spending is easy to see. Bowden’s Blackburn projection matches the exact structure of what the Mets gave Luke Weaver last offseason and what they handed A.J.
Minter the year before. Blackburn’s 3.1 bWAR, 1.59 ERA and ability to work multiple innings out of the bullpen make him look like a useful arm, but the question is whether that production is enough to push him into high-end reliever money.
There’s also a wrinkle in the underlying numbers. Blackburn posted the league’s worst gap between expected ERA and his actual finish, with a 3.68 xERA that still looks solid but sits more than two full runs higher than where he ended up.
Spotrac sees the market very differently. Its projection has Blackburn landing just $7.7 million on a one-year deal, the kind of short-term contract that says “prove you can do it again.” That would be a much more comfortable number for the Yankees, or anyone else interested.
New York already figured out Blackburn once, but that doesn’t mean it should rush into a bigger commitment. The 32-year-old former starter deserves another look, not a blank check.
Even if he repeats his 2026 season, there’s still a ceiling on what he should get. Spotrac’s estimate feels reasonable.
Bowden’s $22 million over two years feels like money better spent somewhere else.
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