The Mets are staring at a brutal set of numbers as they come out of the All-Star break, and ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle has only made the picture darker.
New York sits at 40-57, 16.0 games out in the NL East and 12.0 games back in the NL Wild Card race. With roughly 2.5 months left, that leaves the club in a hole that looks awfully hard to climb out of.
Doolittle’s projections don’t leave much room for hope. He has the Mets at a projected final record of 67-95, with 0.0% odds to win the division, 0.0% odds to reach the playoffs, and 0.0% odds to win the World Series.
"Record: 40-57 | Projected final record: 67-95. Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%," Doolittle projects.
That kind of forecast is a harsh reflection of where the season stands right now. A 16-game deficit in the division is a mountain, and even the 12-game gap in the Wild Card picture would require a major surge to erase.
For a team that entered the year with big expectations after all of its offseason spending, the results have been a major letdown. Instead of looking like a contender, the Mets are tracking toward a finish well under .500 and likely far from the postseason race by the end.
There’s also the reality of what could happen next. David Stearns and Steve Cohen may have little choice but to move players at the deadline this summer, with Freddy Peralta, Luke Weaver, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley, Luis Robert Jr., Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, and others mentioned as possible trade candidates by the August 3 deadline.
If that happens, the Mets could slide even further. Right now, the projections already say 0.0% for the division, the playoffs, and the championship. The only question left is how much worse the final three months might get.
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