Tarik Skubal is lining up for a monster payday, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel thinks the number could get historic fast.
McDaniel is projecting an eight-year, $352 million contract for the two-time Cy Young winner, a deal that would put Skubal in position to reset two major MLB pitching records. The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are viewed as the teams most likely to be in the mix, and both have the kind of rotation need and financial appetite to chase a deal of that size.
“1. Tarik Skubal, LHSP... Projected contract/QO: eight years, $352 million (44 AAV), not eligible for QO,” McDaniel projects.
That total would top the current pitcher contract benchmark set by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed with the Dodgers for $325 million over 12 years. Even with fewer years attached, Skubal’s projected deal would still clear that figure by a comfortable margin.
The annual value would be just as eye-catching. Max Scherzer holds the record for the largest AAV for a pitcher at $43.3 million per year, and McDaniel’s projection would push Skubal to $44 million annually, nudging past that mark.
McDaniel’s estimate may not even be the ceiling. With free agency underway, a bidding war could drive the price higher, and the Dodgers, Mets, and possibly the San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, and Detroit Tigers are all expected to be part of the market.
If Skubal lands anywhere near that eight-year, $352 million range, the team that wins him will be paying a premium for one of the biggest arms on the market.
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