The Knicks have every reason to expect some pullback from deep next spring. They also have enough cushion to survive it.
That’s the balancing act facing New York as it looks ahead to a title defense in 2026-27. After burying more than 39 percent of their three-pointers during last year’s playoff run, the Knicks are already bracing for a dip, and history says that instinct is sound. But history also says a modest decline from long range does not have to wreck a champion’s chances.
Earlier this offseason, “a team source took a cautious approach” when speaking with ESPN’s Ben Golliver, “warning about the possibility of a championship hangover, and noting that the Knicks' three-point shooting could regress next spring after they ranked first in the 2026 postseason.”
The hangover talk feels like noise. Jalen Brunson is not wired like that…at all. So, the same goes for the rest of the team, too.
The shooting part is real, though. Reigning champions usually don’t stay as sharp from outside the arc.
Over the last 20 title winners, regular-season three-point efficiency has dropped by 0.2 percentage points relative to the league average in the year after the championship. In the playoffs, the slide has been even more noticeable: a full percentage point below the league average.
There are plenty of reasons that happens. Roster changes.
Wear and tear from long postseason runs. Injuries.
Plain old randomness. The Knicks are not immune to any of it.
They do have some things working against a massive drop. New York is not built around a bunch of injury-prone stars, but it does have a roster full of players in their 30s, which raises the chance of some kind of setback.
Fatigue is part of the equation, too. Blowing through the 2026 playoffs could help, but Brunson, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges each rank in the top five in total minutes over the past four years.
OG Anunoby sits 16th.
Continuity is the other big factor, and the Knicks have plenty of it. Even after losing Mitchell Robinson to Boston, they are bringing back more than 85 percent of last season’s regular-season minutes. That kind of stability sounds like a safeguard, but the recent championship data doesn’t really support that idea.
Among the last 20 champions, the average drop was -0.2 relative to the league in the season after the title, and -1.0 in the playoffs. Teams returning 70-plus percent of their roster minutes posted the same -0.2 regular-season change and a -0.8 playoff decline. But the teams with 85-plus percent continuity - the bucket New York fits into - actually did worse: -0.7 in the regular season and -1.2 in the playoffs.
That’s not enough to call it a rule. It does hint, though, that leaning too heavily on the same core can become risky.
More likely, it’s just the usual volatility that comes with shooting. Either way, it doesn’t guarantee the Knicks will fall off - and it doesn’t protect them from it, either.
What gives New York breathing room is how far above the pack it was last postseason. The Knicks hit 39.1 percent from three, which was 4.3 percentage points better than the NBA’s 34.8 percent playoff average.
The typical champion in the sample was only plus-1.3 in that area. In other words, New York’s edge from deep was more than three times the norm.
That kind of number is not sustainable forever. OG Anunoby shot 48.9 percent, Landry Shamet 47.5 percent, and Karl-Anthony Towns 45.6 percent from beyond the arc while each logged more than 300 postseason minutes. Those are the obvious candidates to come back toward earth.
Even so, a meaningful regression would still leave the Knicks in strong shape. If they were to take the same kind of hit that recent champions with 85-plus percent continuity have taken on average, they would still be 3.1 percentage points above the postseason average. That would remain more than double the typical champion’s performance.
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