Josh Hart’s absence has opened a door the Knicks probably didn’t expect to be staring at this early.
With Hart missing two straight games, Landry Shamet has slid into the starting five, and the Knicks haven’t blinked. They rolled past the Bulls 135-105 on Wednesday and followed with a 109-97 win over the Cavs on Saturday, with the “new” starting group holding up well enough to make the conversation a real one.
Against Chicago, the starting lineup was electric. The Knicks scored 36 points on 24 possessions, good for a 150.0 offensive rating and a +62.0 net rating.
That was the best offensive rating by a Knicks starting group in a single game this season, topping the 137.5 mark they posted in a win over Detroit on October 27. It also came with a heavier first-quarter workload than any other Knicks starting group has seen this season, as that unit played 16 first-quarter possessions.
That Wednesday performance was also the Knicks’ best starting-group offensive rating since Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Sixers, when Deuce McBride was in for the injured OG Anunoby.
Saturday was less explosive, but still effective. The starters posted a 95.7 offensive rating against Cleveland, yet still won their minutes and finished at +4.7 in net rating.
So the question naturally follows: is this a real starting lineup debate?
Shamet has given the Knicks plenty to think about. In 459 possessions with him on the floor this season, New York has posted a 119.2 offensive rating and a +11.1 net rating. When he sits, those numbers drop to a 110.5 offensive rating and -0.3 net rating across 400 possessions.
Part of Shamet’s value is obvious. He stretches the floor in a way only Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby can match on this roster.
He’s hit 20 of 48 threes, which is 41.7%, and only Brunson (68) and OG (58) have taken more threes among Knicks players this season. Spencer Pearlman’s The Court Lab also has Shamet leading the Knicks in Off-Ball Gravity value at +6.25.
Hart, though, brings his own case to the table. He’s right behind Shamet in three-point attempts on the team with 38, and he’s shooting 34.2% from deep after knocking down a career-high 41.3% last season. He’s also taking 5.4 threes per game, his highest rate since the 2019-20 season with the Pelicans.
But the shot profile tells a bigger story. Two-thirds of Hart’s attempts have come from three, a much higher share than last season, when threes made up 40.9% of his field goal attempts.
The volume is there. The reliability hasn’t been.
Among Knicks players averaging at least 15 minutes per game, every one except Hart has a positive perimeter off-ball gravity rating. Hart’s is -2.5.
Still, this is not a case of Hart suddenly becoming expendable. He’s been huge for the Knicks this season, averaging a little over eight points, more than seven rebounds, and just under four assists per game.
His on-off numbers remain strong, too. With Hart on the floor in 443 possessions, the Knicks have a 114.2 offensive rating, a 105.6 defensive rating, and an +8.6 net rating.
Without him, the offense actually ticks up to 116.1, but the defense slips to 113.3, leaving the team at just +2.8 in net rating over 416 possessions.
That’s why the Knicks’ recent wins without Hart shouldn’t be taken at face value. Last season, they played 16 games without him and won nine, but several of those victories came against weaker opponents. They lost to the Spurs, Sixers, and Pistons after Christmas Day, and one of their better Hart-less wins came in February against the Nuggets.
Wednesday’s win over the Bulls fit that pattern a bit. Chicago came in with just one win.
Saturday’s win over Cleveland was different in the sense that it wasn’t driven by hot shooting outside the starters. The Knicks got it done through the little things: cutting down turnovers and hammering the offensive glass.
There’s also a telling split that points toward the bigger picture. Among the seven Knicks averaging at least 15 minutes per game, no one has a bigger plus-minus per 36 minutes swing between on-court and off-court play than Hart, at +10.55. Shamet is right behind him at +9.0.
That’s why the answer probably isn’t about choosing one over the other. The Knicks have been at their best when both are involved.
With Hart on the floor and Shamet off, New York has a 105.3 offensive rating and -0.1 net rating in 247 possessions. With Shamet on and Hart off, the Knicks are at 114.4 offensively and +4.8 in net rating across 263 possessions.
When both share the floor, the numbers jump to a 125.5 offensive rating, 106.0 defensive rating, and +19.5 net rating in 196 possessions.
Most of that overlap has come without Mikal Bridges on the floor. In the 183 possessions where Hart and Shamet have played together without Bridges, and after removing the 16 possessions where all three were on the court together, the numbers climb again to a 127.9 offensive rating, 100.5 defensive rating, and +27.3 net rating.
When Hart is back, he’ll return to the starting lineup next to Bridges. The more interesting test may come later, when the game tightens up and everyone is healthy again.
For now, Shamet has earned the starting spot while Hart is out. The bigger question is whether the Knicks should be thinking less about who starts and more about how often they can keep both of them on the floor together.
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