Robert Williams III’s new extension with the Portland Trail Blazers may end up giving the New York Knicks a blueprint for Mitchell Robinson.
Williams is set to sign a three-year, $44 million deal, and the structure is the part that should have the Knicks paying attention. According to NBA insider Jake Fischer, Portland has fully guaranteed Williams’ 2026-27 salary at $14 million.
After that, just $5 million of his $14.7 million in 2027-28 is guaranteed. That number becomes fully guaranteed if he plays at least 50 games in 2026-27.
Year 3 is completely non-guaranteed unless he reaches 50 appearances the season before.
That kind of setup is unusual, but it also makes sense for a player whose health has always shaped his value. Williams has dealt with a spotty availability record, and the Trail Blazers are protecting themselves while still paying for his defense and his minutes-management reality. For the Knicks, that could be the exact kind of compromise they need with Robinson.
To be fair to Robinson, he has been on the floor more often than Williams over the last four years. Robinson has played in 167 games during that span, while Williams has appeared in 120. Robinson has also logged more minutes per game, 22.9 to 19.2.
This season, though, the two were much closer. Robinson averaged 19.6 minutes in 60 games, while Williams posted 17.1 minutes across 59 games.
Robinson is slightly younger, while Williams brings a little more offensive flexibility as a passer and finisher. Put it together, and the comparison becomes pretty useful for New York.
That’s why Williams’ price point feels like a logical starting place for Robinson talks. If Portland is willing to tie part of the money to availability on the back end, it makes sense that Robinson could be open to something similar.
Of course, that would not magically solve the Knicks’ cap situation. They have a little under $6 million in room below the second apron, and Robinson would cost more than that.
But there may be a way for New York to make the deal work without locking itself into the full amount right away. If owner James Dolan is willing to spend now while keeping some protection on the back end, the Knicks could avoid being trapped by the full price unless Robinson proves he can stay available.
There’s also another path. Instead of using partial guarantees, New York could guarantee the entire deal and ask Robinson to accept a lower number.
Williams is effectively protected for $19 million total depending on availability. If the Knicks offered Robinson $30 million guaranteed over three years, they could start his 2026-27 salary at $9.3 million. That would still leave them in the second apron, but close enough to the edge that they could see how things look by the trade deadline.
The catch is obvious: Robinson would have to take less than the four-year, $60 million contract he already has. That makes the idea a long shot, even in a market where non-superstar centers don’t exactly have endless leverage.
Still, the Williams extension gives the Knicks a few possible ways forward. None of them cleanly keeps them out of the second apron. But they do create room for Dolan to avoid living there forever, or at all if things break the wrong way.
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