The Knicks may be looking at Deuce McBride like a player they have to move before the bill comes due. That’s the usual logic: he’s on track for free agency next summer, New York has guard depth, it needs a third big, and the front office has a habit of moving players it doesn’t plan to pay before they reach the open market. With the February 11 trade deadline looming, the easy assumption is that McBride is a name to monitor.
But that assumption may be doing too much work.
McBride fits one of the league’s most valuable molds: a perimeter defender who can handle the toughest assignments and knock down a bunch of threes. Over the past three seasons, he has finished in the 75th percentile or better in both three-pointers made per 75 possessions and defensive matchup difficulty, according to BBall-Index. The only other players to hit that mark while playing at least 1,000 minutes each season are Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Suggs, and Keyonte George.
That’s strong company. But McBride is also the smallest player in that group at 6’2”, and that matters. NBA teams pay a premium for three-and-D players, but the price tag gets steeper when the player is under 6’5”.
Keyonte George is listed at 6’4” and is a much weaker defender than McBride, yet he is still in line for a sizable extension from the Utah Jazz. That does complicate the argument.
Still, George is also his team’s primary ball-handler, and those extra two inches count. If a player isn’t wing-sized and wants to get paid, he usually has to bring that kind of on-ball role with him.
McBride doesn’t. Among players who logged at least 1,000 minutes last season, he barely cracked the top 150 in true usage, which factors in shot volume, turnovers, assists, and potential assists. That kind of profile usually doesn’t lead to a huge payday.
The market for players like this suggests the Knicks may not be staring at a runaway price after all. Only 12 players last season, McBride included, handled above-average defensive assignments, posted true usage rates under 40, and stood no taller than 6’4”. Of that group, only two earned more than $6 million: Davion Mitchell at $11.6 million and Gabe Vincent at $11.5 million, with Vincent viewed as a major negative at that salary.
Mitchell may be the high end of what McBride can expect, and even that might be generous. Mitchell was paid like a starter and has more ball-handling responsibility than McBride.
Jordan Goodwin of the Phoenix Suns may be the cleaner comparison. He’s a bit bigger, though not nearly as good a shooter, and he just signed a three-year, $19 million deal to remain in Phoenix.
So the idea that McBride is about to become too expensive may be overstated. He won’t be any cheaper than the $4 million he’s making now, but the numbers point to a player who still looks more manageable than the Knicks may be assuming. If New York is going to move him, the bar should be high.
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