Pascal Siakam has already shown the Knicks the problem they need to solve Friday in Indianapolis, and it’s not just his scoring touch. It’s how quickly he can turn a defensive mistake into free throws.
Siakam put up 29 in Dallas on Monday, then followed with 28 against Washington on Wednesday. The number New York should be studying most closely is the one from that Wizards game: he went 12-for-12 at the line.
The Knicks can live with tough shots. They can’t afford to hand him that many easy points without making the rest of the defense work.
The tricky part is that Siakam has been doing damage in different ways. Against Dallas, he buried five of eight threes and added eight assists.
Against Washington, he was 7-for-17 from the field and 2-for-7 from deep, yet still nearly matched that scoring total. He also had five assists, while Andrew Nembhard finished with 10.
That’s the warning sign for New York: if it sends help from the wrong spot, Indiana has enough passing to punish it.
Tyrese Haliburton was listed out with a left hamstring strain on the NBA’s early Friday injury report, but that doesn’t mean the Pacers are short on playmaking. Nembhard’s line against Washington is proof enough that a rushed double-team can open up the other side of the floor.
So the Knicks’ best approach is restraint. Put size on Siakam, keep the first defender between him and the rim, and have the nearest guard show a hand without fully committing to the double.
The weak-side big should stay close to the basket until Siakam’s feet or the pass force the issue. If he settles for a contested turnaround before help arrives, that’s the shot New York should be willing to live with.
The alternative is a late second defender flying in across his shooting arm.
There will still be moments when the Knicks have to send help. If Siakam catches it too deep, or if a switch leaves a smaller guard on him, that’s when the double should come earlier.
The key is timing. The help needs to arrive while the passer is still visible and the first outlet is clear.
Once Siakam gets two feet in the lane, the defense is usually choosing between a foul and an open look.
Foul trouble matters, too. A third team foul late in a quarter is one thing; a third foul with six minutes left is another.
If New York burns through its margin early, the next drive can send Indiana to the line even if Siakam never touches the ball on the possession. Sometimes the smarter play is to concede a difficult two and avoid reaching.
Two games don’t define exactly how Siakam will shoot or how the whistle will go Friday. If he starts knocking down pull-up threes early, the Knicks will have to step higher on him.
If one defender starts picking up fouls, the matchup has to change. But the plan shouldn’t begin with a trap.
Make Siakam earn it first. Force a few hard shots before giving him open looks or free throws he didn’t have to work for.
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