The Knicks may have gotten the exact kind of summer that helps a reigning champion dodge the usual hangover.
The East spent the offseason loading up, reshaping rosters and, in plenty of cases, building specifically to chase New York. That matters, because title teams usually slide the next year. And for the Knicks, avoiding that familiar dip might be easier with a conference full of teams pushing harder than ever to catch them.
The pattern is real. Over the last 20 reigning NBA champions, Basketball-Reference data adjusted for shortened seasons shows an average net rating drop of about two points per 100 possessions the following season.
That kind of decline would pull the Knicks from their current 6.5 net rating to 4.5. That would still be good, but it would also leave them behind the 2025-26 Charlotte Hornets, who finished with a number that eventually fed into a play-in beatdown and a LaMelo Ball trade.
Even the teams that won with strong but not outrageous point differentials have tended to fall back. Among the last 20 champs, 10 finished their title season with a net rating between 4.0 and 7.0, right in the Knicks’ range.
Their average decline the next year was 1.7. That’s a little better than the overall sample, but still enough to push a team closer to the middle of the pack.
There are plenty of usual reasons for that kind of drop: age, injuries, departures. Sometimes it’s just the mental drag of having already climbed the mountain.
But the Knicks don’t look built for that sort of drift. Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby, in particular, don’t exactly give off the vibe of a group ready to coast.
They’re “competitive sociopaths. (That’s a compliment.)”
And even if New York wanted to relax, the conference setup won’t allow it.
The Toronto Raptors, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, and Cleveland Cavaliers have all reworked their rosters with the Knicks in mind, at least in the way the source material frames it. The Detroit Pistons remain in the mix.
The Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers could be healthier. The Washington Wizards might even be good.
And the Boston Celtics are still there, whatever that means. On top of that, oddsmakers have the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder as title favorites.
That kind of noise can sharpen a team. When everybody around you believes they’ve built the answer, there’s a built-in edge to proving them wrong.
New York also has some built-in protection against the classic title-team slide. Mitchell Robinson is the only player from the top 10 of the postseason rotation now on another team, and he was eighth in minutes among that group.
The roster is older by a year, naturally, but only Jordan Clarkson was older than 31 among the playoff rotation. The core is still in its prime.
Injuries can still wreck all of it, of course. That’s true for everybody.
But the Knicks have also absorbed a massive workload over the last few years. Since 2024, five of the seven players with the most combined regular-season and playoff minutes wear orange and blue: Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
There’s no clean way to measure what that takes out of a team. Still, a 16-3 playoff run does soften the blow a bit. New York would have been more battered if every series had gone the distance.
Put it together, and the warning signs of a typical championship dip just don’t look as loud here. If anything, the Knicks have a real chance to be one of the rare defending champs to improve their net rating by one point instead of watching it fall by two or more.
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His regular season fit was strong enough to make the decision easy, with 9.3 points per game and 39.2% shooting from deep underscoring why the front office wanted him back. For a Knicks team built around depth and versatility, keeping a proven catch-and-shoot presence matters, especially when the margins tighten and every stable bench piece starts to look more important than the box score suggests. [Read more 🡒]