The New York Knicks' decision to trade away control over six first-round picks for Mikal Bridges was a bold move, one that might come with even greater consequences as the NBA considers draft-lottery reform. With the league contemplating changes to combat tanking, the value of those future picks could skyrocket, potentially altering the Knicks' long-term strategy.
Recently, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that the NBA presented three potential "anti-tanking" scenarios to its board of governors. While these proposals aren't finalized, each would expand the lottery to include between 18 and 22 teams, up from the current 14. This shift could significantly impact the value of the first-round picks the Knicks owe the Brooklyn Nets in 2027, 2028 (swap), 2029, and 2031.
Among the proposals, one stands out as particularly concerning for the Knicks. The first scenario suggests expanding the lottery to include 18 teams: the 10 that miss the play-in tournament and the eight that qualify for it.
In this format, the bottom 10 teams would each have an equal 8% chance of moving up in the lottery, while the remaining 20% of the odds would be divided among the eight play-in teams. This means all 18 spots would be determined by the lottery.
If you're scratching your head, you're not alone. Here's the key takeaway: if the Knicks finish as the No. 7 seed or lower in a season when they owe Brooklyn a pick, they might end up sending a high lottery pick. This could range from the No. 1 selection to a top-eight pick, even if they aren't performing poorly overall.
The stakes are high. Even a mediocre season could lead to a significant loss.
Assuming an even distribution of that 20% among play-in teams, each would have a 2.5% chance per team. This translates to nearly a 12% chance for the Knicks to give up a top-five pick, a 16% chance for a top-seven pick, and a 22% chance for a top-10 pick.
For the Knicks, this potential lottery reform could be a looming issue. While their core players are in their prime and secured under contracts, the front office's championship aspirations add pressure. Failing to win a title or make a deep playoff run could lead to major changes, increasing the risk of those future picks becoming highly valuable for Brooklyn.
The Knicks likely didn't anticipate this scenario when they traded for Bridges. They knew they were paying a premium, and that it might hinder their dreams of acquiring a superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But under the current system, they'd need to be among the league's worst to lose a top-five pick. With the proposed changes, even a ninth-worst record could leave them with a 34.1% chance of losing such a pick.
This isn't just a minor detail. Depending on how the NBA addresses tanking, the Mikal Bridges trade could end up looking far more costly than anyone, including the Knicks, ever imagined.