Knicks Big Man Decision Comes Down To One Frustrating Robinson Debate

By letting Mitchell Robinson go, the Knicks make strategic moves to bolster their bench depth and mitigate risks tied to injury and free-throw struggles.

The Knicks losing Mitchell Robinson hurts on paper. There’s no way around that.

He’s the better defender, the better finisher at the rim, and the better offensive rebounder than Andre Drummond, the big man the Celtics just signed. In a perfect cap world, New York probably would have preferred to keep Robinson.

But the move away from him does come with a few clear benefits.

For one, the regular season is a different animal than the playoffs. In the postseason, every weak spot gets exposed when you’re dealing with the best teams, coaches, and players in the sport.

Robinson, even with a shaky playoff run, still brings a higher ceiling than Drummond when the games matter most. But over the long haul of an 82-game season, availability matters just as much as upside - and that’s where Drummond has the edge.

The numbers make that pretty plain. Over the last five seasons, Robinson has played in 239 regular-season games, which works out to 47.8 per year.

If you remove his 2021-22 season, when he appeared in 72 games, that average drops to just 42. Drummond, by comparison, has been on the floor for 294 games over that same stretch, or 58.8 per season.

He’s topped 63 games in all but one of those years, while Robinson has done it only once.

That kind of reliability changes how a team can operate. Drummond doesn’t need to be managed the way Robinson often does, so he can handle back-to-backs and give the Knicks a better chance of getting steady production night after night. He may not bring Robinson’s talent, but he helps make up for it by simply being available.

The bigger roster question is what keeping Robinson would have cost. The Knicks could have brought him back without going over the second apron, but doing so would have meant losing Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet.

There’s also a chance Mohamed Diawara would have been gone too. Robinson is absolutely a valuable player, and his skill set is tough to replace.

But it’s hard to say sacrificing that much depth would have been worth it.

New York would have had to replace those guards with minimum-level options, and that would have cut into the bench and the starting group alike. Alvarado and Shamet mattered because they could slide in next to the starters without disrupting anything. That kind of fit showed up throughout the season and especially in the postseason.

There’s also the issue of putting too much weight on one part of the roster. If the Knicks had chosen Robinson over the others, they would have been leaning heavily on an injury-prone big man and McBride, who is set to be a free agent next summer. Instead, they now have a second unit with more balance, and they’re in a better spot moving forward with Alvarado, Shamet, and Diawara all locked up for the next few years.

Robinson’s free-throw shooting only adds to the case. He has hit just 43.6% from the line over his last three seasons, and that has affected how useful he can be in key moments. Even when he was healthy, the Knicks often had to deal with him being targeted in the postseason because of those struggles.

Drummond isn’t exactly a marksman at the stripe, but he’s been much better lately. His career mark is 48.9%, yet after changing his shooting mechanics, improving his conditioning, working on his mental clarity, and using virtual reality, he has become far more dependable. Over his last three seasons, he has shot 60.7% from the line.

Robinson still gave the Knicks plenty of value, and his free-throw issues were a small price for everything else he brought. But with Drummond in the mix, Mike Brown and the Knicks should have an easier time managing rotations and keeping the offense flowing, with hack-a-Mitch no longer hanging over them.

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Cameron Carr and St. John's Zuby Ejiofor have both looked the part early in Summer League, which only sharpens the question of what the Knicks gave up by moving back. New Yorks veteran-heavy roster already leaves little room for developmental mistakes, and the ripple effects of that draft-night decision could reach beyond this summer if the team keeps trying to squeeze in more proven pieces around the edges. [Read more 🡒]