The NFL is a sport where unpredictability reigns supreme, and that's what makes it so captivating. With only 17 games on the schedule, every matchup carries immense weight.
Unlike the marathon seasons of the NBA, NHL, or MLB, the NFL's limited sample size means that a hot streak or a slump can define an entire season. It’s a league where an oddly-shaped ball can bounce in ways that turn the tide of a game, and luck often plays a starring role.
This unpredictability leads to wild fluctuations in player performances from year to year. While the truly elite can maintain a steady level of excellence, most players experience highs and lows.
Take the New York Jets, for example. They have a couple of players who are primed for a comeback in the 2026 season after a challenging 2025.
Let's start with quarterback Geno Smith. His journey over the past four seasons has been a rollercoaster.
Back in 2022, Smith was on fire, leading the NFL with a 69.8% completion rate and ranking fourth with 30 touchdown passes, propelling the Seahawks into the playoffs. Fast forward to last season, and Smith found himself leading the league in a less flattering category: 17 interceptions, with a 2-13 record as a starter.
But don’t let that one season with the Raiders fool you. In three of the last four years, Smith has boasted a winning record, a passer rating above 92.0, and over 3,600 passing yards.
The stars could be aligning for Smith to bounce back. According to Pro Football Focus, Smith threw 4.7 more interceptions than expected in 2025, the largest discrepancy in the NFL.
With a bit of average luck, Smith could see his interception numbers drop significantly, potentially turning those costly turnovers into victories.
Then there's EDGE rusher Will McDonald. After a breakout 2024, McDonald’s stats took a hit in 2025.
His sack total dropped from 10.5 to 8.0, and his overall pressures decreased as well. Yet, half of those sacks in 2025 came in just one game against a struggling Browns offensive line, which made the season seem even more disappointing on paper.
However, McDonald’s decline wasn't due to a lack of skill. On film, he still showcased his prowess as a pass rusher.
The real culprit was the Jets' secondary, which struggled mightily, allowing opponents to get the ball out at lightning speed-averaging 2.59 seconds, the fastest in the league. This left McDonald with little time to wreak havoc in the backfield.
In 2024, with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed locking down the outside, opponents took longer to throw, giving McDonald more opportunities to shine.
Looking ahead to 2026, the Jets have bolstered their secondary with additions like Minkah Fitzpatrick and D’Angelo Ponds, along with the expected growth of Azareye’h Thomas. This improved defensive backfield should give McDonald the time he needs to get back to his disruptive ways.
In the NFL, where every snap matters, these anticipated rebounds for Smith and McDonald could be pivotal for the Jets. As the saying goes, sometimes all it takes is the right bounce-or the right coverage-for a player to turn things around.
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New York has a lot riding on getting a clearer read on that group, especially with young pieces like Adonai Mitchell, Mason Taylor, Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq needing meaningful looks. The uneasy part is that the Jets may not have much margin for error behind Smith and Klubnik, so a rough season could easily turn into another reset year, even if it also puts them in position to land a premium draft pick and keep future quarterback options open. [Read more 🡒]
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Aaron Glenns First Real Jets Test Hinges On Four Big Gambles
Aaron Glenns first season steering the Jets defense comes with a built-in stress test, and it starts with how quickly a handful of new faces can raise the floor. Minkah Fitzpatrick, David Bailey, Nahshon Wright and Demario Davis give the unit a mix of pedigree, youth, bargain upside and veteran steadiness, but none of it matters much unless the whole group actually fits into Glenns plan and delivers on the promise that brought them in.
Bailey arrives with the pressure that comes with being a top pick, while Fitzpatrick is the kind of high-end defender who changes the conversation if he looks like himself again. Wright has to prove his ball skills can carry over, and Davis is being asked to keep defying the usual timeline at his position. For a defense trying to become the backbone of the team, the upside is obvious. The catch is that each of these additions carries its own question, and the answers might determine how quickly Glenns version of the Jets takes shape. [Read more 🡒]