As the Dolphins prepare for a chilly Sunday kickoff in New Jersey, all eyes naturally turn to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa - and not just because he's the face of Miami's high-powered offense. The forecast is calling for temperatures around 40 degrees, and that’s been a bit of a red flag in Tua’s past.
He’s 0-7 in games played under 46°F, a stat that’s hard to ignore. But here’s the twist: none of those losses came against the New York Jets - a team Tua has flat-out owned.
Tagovailoa is a perfect 6-0 as a starter against the Jets, and that track record matters. It’s not just about the weather; it’s about the matchup. And this is one that’s consistently tilted in Miami’s favor when Tua is under center.
Head coach Mike McDaniel isn’t buying into the cold-weather narrative, either. At Friday’s press conference, he made it clear that the focus is on the opponent, not the temperature.
“Each team’s unique,” McDaniel said. “It won’t be about the cold - it’s about playing the Jets.”
That mindset reflects the Dolphins’ broader approach. Yes, the thermometer might dip, but Miami isn’t planning to freeze up.
A big reason why? Their run game has been rolling - and that travels well in any climate.
De’Von Achane, who was just named AFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, has been electric. His burst and vision have added a new gear to the Dolphins' ground game, which has racked up 530 rushing yards during their current three-game win streak. That kind of production isn’t just a luxury - it’s a lifeline when the passing game gets tested by the elements.
Cold weather has historically affected Tua’s accuracy and ball security - turnovers and missed throws have been a theme in those seven losses under 46 degrees. But this version of the Dolphins offense is built to adapt. With a more balanced attack and a defense that’s quietly been doing its job, Miami has the tools to manage the conditions and still play their brand of football.
The Jets will bring their usual physicality and defensive grit, but the Dolphins aren’t walking into MetLife Stadium unarmed. They’ve got a quarterback who knows how to beat this team, a head coach focused on execution over excuses, and a running game that can take the pressure off when the air gets cold and the windows get tighter.
So yes, the weather’s worth watching - but don’t let it overshadow the bigger picture. Miami has a clear path to success, and it starts with sticking to what they do best: staying balanced, staying aggressive, and letting Tua lead the way - cold or not.