The stakes are high in Foxborough this Sunday, and the Patriots know exactly what’s on the line. With a win over the Bills, New England can clinch its first AFC East title since 2019-a statement moment for a team that’s quietly stacked up an 11-2 record and currently sits as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
But despite the home-field advantage, the momentum, and the chance to officially reclaim the division crown, the Patriots are entering Week 15 as 1.5-point underdogs. That’s right-underdogs at Gillette Stadium, where the wind bites and the banners loom large.
Now, if you’re scratching your head at that line, you’re not alone. The Bills, at 9-4, are still very much in the playoff picture, but they’ve been inconsistent of late-just 3-2 in their last five outings. And yet, the oddsmakers clearly see something that tilts the scales toward Buffalo, even with New England playing some of its best football of the season.
When asked about the betting line, Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel gave an answer that cut through the noise. “Every week, you see-in this league-records really don't mean anything,” Vrabel said. “The point spreads and Survivor pools get blown up every week, and all that other stuff, so we're just trying to focus on our preparation here and getting back into it.”
That’s classic Vrabel-blunt, grounded, and laser-focused on what actually matters. And he’s not wrong.
Drake Maye on the #Patriots being home underdogs vs. the Bills on Sunday:
— Mike Kadlick (@mikekadlick) December 10, 2025
"Anytime you're at home and you're an underdog it gives you something to play for a little bit.
Really, we're [not] worried about all the, whatever the underdog, whatever they set the line at. It's us… https://t.co/xa0yJGpXAg
In today’s NFL, where parity reigns and no lead feels safe, the record books don’t always tell the full story. The Patriots have been building something real this season, and Vrabel’s message is clear: ignore the noise, stick to the plan.
Quarterback Drake Maye, who’s been nothing short of electric this year and is firmly in the MVP conversation, echoed his coach’s sentiment with a competitor’s edge.
“Any time you're at home and you're an underdog, it gives you something to play for a little bit,” Maye said. “Really, we're not worried about all the, whatever the underdog, whatever they set the line at.
It's us vs. them regardless. When they put the ball down it's gonna be 0-0, and for 60 minutes we know we have to play a full game.”
That’s the kind of mindset you want from your quarterback in a game like this. Maye knows what’s at stake, but he’s not letting the outside chatter seep into the locker room. He’s focused on execution, on resilience, on playing a complete game against a team that’s owned the division for the last five years.
“They've won the division for five years,” Maye added. “So we have something we need to go take. It's going to be hard to do, but we're up for it.”
That’s the tone from inside the Patriots’ building right now-not just confidence, but purpose. They’re not just playing to win a game; they’re playing to take back the AFC East. And they know it won’t be handed to them.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots will look to make a statement in front of their home crowd. The Bills are coming in with playoff urgency, but New England’s got a chance to remind the league that the road through the East might just run through Foxborough once again.
Get ready-this one’s going to be a battle.