Jets Face a Big Decision at Quarterback - and Ty Simpson’s Resume Raises Real Questions
In most years leading up to the NFL Draft, Jets fans are knee-deep in quarterback debates. Zach Wilson vs.
Justin Fields in 2021. The five-QB frenzy of 2018.
It’s practically a spring tradition in New York. But the 2026 draft class is breaking that mold - and not necessarily in a good way for the Jets.
This year, there are only two quarterbacks carrying consensus first-round grades: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson. And with the Jets holding the No. 2 overall pick, they’re likely to be spectators when the Raiders snap up Mendoza first overall. That leaves Simpson as the only other quarterback with a first-round projection.
Here’s where it gets tricky.
Simpson is a solid prospect - no one’s denying that. But he’s currently ranked 23rd overall on the consensus big board.
That’s not exactly what you want to see when you’re holding the second pick in the entire draft. The Jets would be reaching, and they know it.
Luckily, they might not have to.
Thanks to the Sauce Gardner trade, New York also owns the 16th overall pick via the Colts. That opens the door to a more balanced approach - potentially addressing another position at No. 2 and circling back to Simpson at 16.
It’s not a guarantee, especially with other QB-needy teams like Arizona, Cleveland, and Miami lurking in the top half of the draft. But it’s a realistic path.
Still, even if Simpson is available at 16, the Jets have to ask themselves one very important question: Is he worth it?
And that’s where things get complicated.
The Red Flag That Can’t Be Ignored
Let’s be clear: if Ty Simpson had a spotless resume, he’d be in the Mendoza conversation. But he doesn’t - and the biggest blemish is one the Jets can’t afford to overlook: experience.
Simpson was a benchwarmer for his first three years at Alabama. He finally got his shot in 2025, starting all 15 games.
That’s it. Fifteen college starts.
In a vacuum, that might not seem like a deal-breaker. But in the context of NFL Draft history? It’s a serious concern.
From 2015 to 2024, 32 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. On average, they entered the league with 31 college starts - more than double Simpson’s total. If the Jets pull the trigger on Simpson in the first round, he’ll have the fourth-fewest college starts of any first-round QB in that span.
Let’s look at the company he’d be keeping:
- Kyler Murray (17 starts)
- Trey Lance (17)
- Mac Jones (17)
- Ty Simpson (15)
- Dwayne Haskins (14)
- Anthony Richardson (13)
- Mitchell Trubisky (13)
That’s not exactly a list of franchise cornerstones.
Murray has had flashes but hasn’t lived up to No. 1 overall expectations. And with Arizona reportedly ready to move on, his time might be up.
As for the rest? None have even sniffed consistent success as starters.
Haskins and Trubisky struggled to find their footing. Lance never got going.
Richardson showed promise but was plagued by injuries. Jones had a hot start but cooled off fast.
Six quarterbacks. Six first-round investments. Not one clear long-term hit.
Does Experience Matter? The Numbers Say Yes - At Least a Little
Now, to be fair, starting experience isn’t a golden ticket. Plenty of guys with 30+ starts have flamed out. But when you look at the quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2015 to 2024, a pattern starts to emerge.
Once you hit the 25-start mark, the success stories become more frequent.
- Josh Allen (25 starts)
- Drake Maye (26)
- Joe Burrow (28)
- Patrick Mahomes (29)
- Jordan Love (32)
- Lamar Jackson (34)
All of them had at least two full seasons of starting experience. All of them have either blossomed into stars or are trending that way. It’s not a perfect formula, but it’s a strong trend - one that’s hard to ignore if you’re sitting in the Jets’ war room.
Meanwhile, quarterbacks with fewer than 25 starts have been far more volatile. Justin Fields had 22 starts; he didn’t pan out in Chicago.
Carson Wentz had 23; he had one great season and faded. Tua Tagovailoa had 24; he put up stats but never delivered in the postseason, and Miami looks ready to move on.
Sam Darnold had 24; he’s still hanging around, but it took him seven seasons and four teams to find his footing.
The takeaway? Quarterbacks with limited college reps face a steeper learning curve - and the NFL isn’t exactly a patient league.
Can Simpson Break the Mold?
All of this brings us back to Simpson. He’s not without talent.
His tape shows flashes of the arm strength, mobility, and poise you want in a modern quarterback. But the lack of experience is a real concern - not a nitpick, not a minor flaw.
A red flag.
The Jets have to ask themselves: Is this the guy who can break the trend?
Because history hasn’t been kind to quarterbacks with under 20 college starts. Six teams have taken that swing in the last decade.
Six teams have missed. If the Jets use the 16th pick on Simpson, they’re betting that he’ll be the exception - the one who bucks the odds.
That’s a tough gamble.
It doesn’t mean Simpson can’t succeed. But it does mean the Jets need to be absolutely convinced that he’s different - that his one year as a starter at Alabama showed enough growth, enough command, enough upside to justify the risk.
Because if they’re wrong, they won’t just be wasting a first-round pick. They’ll be setting the franchise back - again - in a league where quarterback mistakes are hard to recover from.
The Bottom Line
This isn’t a call to write off Ty Simpson. But it is a reminder that drafting quarterbacks is as much about minimizing risk as it is about chasing upside.
If Simpson is there at 16, the Jets will have a real decision to make. They’ll need to weigh the flashes on film against the cold, hard numbers. They’ll need to ask whether they see something in Simpson that no one saw in Lance, Haskins, or Trubisky.
And they’ll need to be honest with themselves about the odds.
Because when it comes to first-round quarterbacks with 15 college starts, history hasn’t been kind. And the Jets can’t afford to be the next cautionary tale.