How Much Is Too Much? The Jets, Mendoza, and the High-Stakes Game of Draft Capital
The NFL Draft is still months away, but the buzz is already reaching a fever pitch-especially when it comes to the quarterback position. And if you’re a Jets fan, you’ve probably asked yourself this question more than once already: How much is too much to trade up for Fernando Mendoza?
Let’s break this down.
Coming off the Big Ten Championship, Mendoza’s stock is soaring. He’s seen by many as the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and there’s a growing sentiment among some fans that the Jets should do whatever it takes to go get him. But that kind of thinking comes with serious risk-and it’s something that NFL insiders like Connor Rodgers are urging caution about.
Rodgers hit the nail on the head during a recent episode of Badlands, when he said, “I almost see people becoming dangerously attached... Give the Titans or the Giants everything.”
He’s not wrong-this is the kind of rhetoric that pops up every draft season when a quarterback prospect captures the imagination. But Rodgers offers a reality check that’s hard to ignore: “We’ve watched 9 million quarterbacks go into situations set up to fail.”
And that’s the heart of the issue.
The Jets’ Current Reality
This isn’t about whether Mendoza is talented-he is. This is about whether the Jets are in a position to support a young quarterback. Because history has shown us, time and time again, that even the most gifted prospects can falter if the infrastructure around them isn’t there.
Rodgers put it bluntly: “I don’t think the Jets are good enough right now to trade their war chest of picks for any quarterback.” That’s not a knock on Mendoza.
It’s a reflection of where the Jets are as a roster. If you unload premium draft capital to move up, you’re not just betting on one player-you’re betting that player can thrive without the reinforcements you just gave away.
And let’s be honest, the Jets have needs. They still need a reliable No. 2 receiver.
They need to keep building a defense that can hold its own. They need depth.
Flexibility. Trading up for Mendoza might mean sacrificing all of that.
The Draft Class Dynamics
Now, part of the urgency stems from the shape of this quarterback class. With Dante Moore reportedly heading back to school, the top of the draft board is looking thin.
Right now, it’s Mendoza and Ty Simpson-maybe. And that “maybe” is important because Simpson’s stock has taken a hit in recent weeks.
Over his last five games, he’s thrown six touchdowns to four interceptions. That’s not the kind of late-season surge you want to see from a QB1 candidate.
So what happens when demand outpaces supply? The price goes up. Way up.
If the Jets finish with the 6th or 7th overall pick, which is where they currently sit, they’ll be looking at a steep climb to get to No. 1.
And they won’t be alone. Teams like the Browns, Saints, and Raiders are all in the quarterback market-and many could be picking ahead of New York.
That means the Jets would have to outbid teams with similar needs and possibly better draft positions. And the price tag? Think back to the Panthers’ blockbuster deal to move up for Bryce Young:
To the Bears:
- WR DJ Moore (a proven 1,000-yard receiver)
- 2023 first-round pick (No. 9 overall)
- 2023 second-round pick (No. 61 overall)
- 2024 first-round pick
- 2025 second-round pick
To the Panthers:
- 2023 No. 1 overall pick → used to select Bryce Young
That’s the kind of haul it takes to get to the top. And the Jets might have to offer even more, depending on how the board shakes out.
The Bigger Picture
So again, we come back to the question: How much is too much?
The temptation to go all-in on a quarterback is understandable. Especially when you’ve been searching for “the guy” for what feels like forever.
But the cautionary tales are everywhere. Rookies dropped into unstable situations, asked to carry teams that aren’t ready to be carried.
It rarely ends well.
What the Jets can do is stay flexible. They’ve accumulated extra picks for a reason.
If the right opportunity presents itself-one that doesn’t require mortgaging the future-then yes, Mendoza could make sense. But if the cost is your next two drafts and the ability to build around him?
That’s a much tougher sell.
Because even the best quarterback prospects need help. They need protection.
They need weapons. They need a defense that can keep them in games.
And they need time.
So before the Jets push all their chips to the center of the table, they need to ask themselves: are we building a team, or are we chasing a savior?
There’s a big difference. And in the NFL, that difference can define a franchise for years.