Adonai Mitchell has spent the early part of his NFL career looking like a receiver who is always one snap away from blowing the top off a defense.
The speed is obvious. The separation has been, too. Since entering the league as a second-round pick of the Indianapolis Colts in 2024, Mitchell has produced the seventh-best “open score” among wide receivers over the last two seasons, according to ESPN analytics, with an 80 mark that reflects his ability to create separation.
That kind of movement has followed him to the Jets after a mid-season trade in 2025. Mitchell kept stacking vertical separation there, just as he had in Indianapolis.
The problem, as it was with the Colts, was that those routes too often went unrewarded. Sometimes the accuracy wasn’t there.
Sometimes the ball never came his way at all.
Mitchell hasn’t been spotless in the equation, either. His career drop rate sits at 15.2%, and his 33.3% contested-catch rate also leaves plenty to be desired. The hands need to get better.
Even with that, the volume of chances he has created downfield has been so impressive that he would still project as one of the league’s better deep threats if those opportunities had been converted at even a league-average rate.
That’s where Geno Smith enters the picture. When the accomplished deep passer joined the Jets in March, it opened the door for the kind of partnership that could finally unlock Mitchell. And since training camp began, the pairing has done exactly that.
In practice, Smith has repeatedly looked Mitchell’s way on downfield throws. Against one-on-one coverage in a MOFC (middle of field closed) look, Smith has been willing to take the shot.
The preseason offered only a small glimpse, but the connection showed up there, too. On one drive with Smith, Mitchell was targeted twice and caught both passes for 13 yards and two first downs.
So as Week 1 nears, the idea of an Adonai Mitchell breakout doesn’t feel like a reach. It’s one of the more optimistic Jets storylines on the board, and it looks a lot more believable now than it did when camp opened.
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One projection has New York using a pick it acquired from the Colts to target Carr in the 2027 NFL Draft, a familiar kind of quarterback swing for a team that has spent years trying to get this part of the roster right. Carr arrives with real college production behind him after a strong 2025 season at Notre Dame, and if the Jets do go that direction, it would signal a willingness to keep building beyond the short-term fix and bet on a younger option with starter upside. [Read more 🡒]