Another week, another stumble for the New York Jets - and with it, their draft position continues to shift in a direction that may ultimately define the franchise's future.
Let’s break down where things stand as we head into the final stretch of the season, using two of the most trusted predictive models in the game: DAVE, FTN’s forward-looking team metric, and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Both are designed to simulate the remainder of the season with a big-picture view, accounting for everything from team strength to remaining schedule.
DAVE: The Slide Continues
Just a few weeks ago, the Jets were sitting in the bottom 10 of DAVE rankings - not great, but not quite in the basement. That’s changed.
Fast. After several weeks of rough performances, the Jets have now dropped to 30th in the league, with only the Browns and Raiders ranked below them.
That’s a steep fall, and it reflects more than just losses - it’s about how those losses have looked.
With three games left on the schedule, DAVE simulations - that’s 25,000 runs - project the Jets to average just 0.7 wins over the final stretch. Translation: if they don’t beat the Saints this week, they’ll be staring down two matchups against playoff-caliber teams in the Patriots and Bills. Winning either of those would require a significant upset.
As it stands, DAVE gives the Jets a 3.3% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, which hasn’t changed much. But the more realistic scenario?
A 70.7% chance of landing in the top five. That puts them in a similar range to the Giants, though still trailing the Titans, Raiders, and Browns when it comes to top-pick odds.
FPI: A Similar Story
ESPN’s FPI tells a nearly identical tale. The Jets are also ranked 30th here, and FPI simulations project them to finish with 0.8 wins over their final three games. According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, the FPI model gives the Jets a 5.3% chance at the No. 1 pick, with a 70.3% chance to land in the top five.
So while the top overall pick is still a long shot, the Jets are firmly entrenched in that top-five conversation - and that’s where things get interesting from a draft strategy standpoint.
Tiebreaker Watch: Margins Matter
In the event of identical records, tiebreakers will play a big role in determining draft order. Here’s what we know:
- Cleveland would almost certainly pick ahead of the Jets if both finish with the same record, thanks to a weaker strength of schedule.
- Tennessee, on the other hand, would likely pick behind the Jets in a tie.
- The Giants and Raiders have strength-of-schedule numbers that are roughly in line with the Jets, so it’s too early to make any definitive calls there.
These margins might seem small, but when you’re talking about the difference between drafting third or sixth - especially in a quarterback-heavy class - they can be franchise-altering.
Week 15: A Crucial Pivot Point
This week’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints is a big one - not because of playoff implications, but because of what it could mean for the Jets’ draft position. A loss to the Saints, who currently sit at four wins, would all but lock the Jets into a top-five pick and keep their slim hopes alive for the No. 1 overall selection.
A win, however, would likely push them out of the top-two range and into that murky 4-7 territory - still a high pick, but not quite the prime real estate needed to control the top of the draft board.
The Bottom Line
The Jets aren’t just playing out the string - they’re playing for the future. Every snap, every result matters from here on out, not just for the record, but for the opportunity to reshape the roster in April. Whether it’s a potential franchise quarterback or a cornerstone pass rusher, the stakes are high.
This week against the Saints could be the swing moment. Lose, and the Jets are in the driver’s seat for a top-tier draft spot. Win, and things get a little more complicated.
Either way, the draft is coming - and for the Jets, it can’t come soon enough.