Jets’ Draft Position Heats Up After Week 15: Why Monday Night Matters in the Tank Race
The New York Jets’ season has gone so far off the rails that it cost their defensive coordinator his job-much to the frustration of players like Sauce Gardner. With the playoffs long out of reach and the offense stuck in neutral, many Jets fans have shifted their focus to the NFL Draft. And after Sunday’s results, that “tank watch” just got a lot more interesting.
Thanks to their own loss and wins by both the Washington Commanders and New Orleans Saints, the Jets climbed from the No. 7 overall pick to No. 5. It’s not the kind of win fans cheer for in September, but in December, it’s the kind that could shape the future of the franchise.
Here’s where things stand in the race for the top pick:
- New York Giants: 2-12 (.536 strength of schedule)
- Las Vegas Raiders: 2-12 (.548)
- Tennessee Titans: 2-12 (.576)
- Cleveland Browns: 3-11 (.483)
- New York Jets: 3-11 (.538)
- Arizona Cardinals: 3-11 (.571)
The Jets are now just one game out of the No. 1 pick, trailing a three-way tie between the Giants, Raiders, and Titans. That’s a tight window, and with three weeks left, every game-and every tiebreaker-matters.
The Tiebreaker Game
When teams finish with the same record, the NFL uses strength of schedule (SOS) to determine draft order. The team with the easier schedule gets the higher pick, under the logic that they had a worse season relative to their competition.
Right now, the Jets are behind the Browns in the draft order, despite identical records, because Cleveland’s SOS is significantly lower (.483 vs. .538). That gap is too wide for the Jets to close, so they’ll need to finish with a worse record than the Browns to leapfrog them.
But when it comes to the trio of 2-12 teams, the Jets are in a much better spot. Their SOS of .538 is already lower than both the Raiders (.548) and Titans (.576), meaning if they end up tied with either team, they’d likely win the tiebreaker.
The Giants are the wildcard here. Their SOS is just a hair lower than the Jets’ at .536. That’s a razor-thin margin-and it’s why Monday Night Football between the Steelers and Dolphins has real implications for the Jets’ draft hopes.
Why Jets Fans Should Be Rooting for Pittsburgh
Let’s break this one down.
The Jets have played the Dolphins twice and the Steelers once. That means Miami counts twice in the Jets’ strength of schedule formula, while Pittsburgh counts just once.
If the Dolphins win on Monday night, that adds two wins to the Jets’ SOS tally (since they played them twice), and only one loss. If the Steelers win, it’s the reverse-one win and two losses get added.
Right now, the Jets’ opponents have a combined record of 126-108-1. The Giants’ opponents sit at 126-109-3.
That’s just a half-game difference. A Steelers win would even things up, bringing the Jets and Giants into a dead heat in the SOS standings.
That’s a huge swing for a single game in December.
Remaining Schedules: Who’s More Likely to Win Again?
Let’s look at the road ahead for both New York teams.
Giants’ Remaining Games:
- vs.
Vikings (6-8)
- at Raiders (2-12)
- vs. Cowboys (6-7-1)
The Giants have the third-easiest remaining schedule in the league (.345 win percentage). And that Raiders matchup guarantees that somebody ahead of the Jets will pick up a win-unless, of course, they tie, which would be the most Jets-Giants outcome possible.
Jets’ Remaining Games:
- at Saints (4-10)
- vs. Patriots (11-3)
- at Bills (10-4)
The Jets, on the other hand, have the eighth-toughest remaining slate (.595 win percentage). Their lone “winnable” game is next week’s trip to New Orleans-a game that might end up being a tank-off with serious draft implications.
If both teams finish 3-14, the draft order could come down to decimal points in SOS. And that’s why tonight’s Steelers-Dolphins result matters so much. It’s not just about who wins-it’s about how those wins and losses ripple through the Jets’ tiebreaker scenarios.
Why Leapfrogging the Giants Still Matters
Now, you might be thinking: “The Giants don’t need a quarterback-why does it matter if the Jets pick ahead of them?”
Fair question. But even if the Giants aren’t targeting a QB, they could be in prime position to trade the pick to a team that is. If the Jets are behind them and want to move up for a quarterback, they might have to pay a premium-to their cross-town rivals, no less.
Getting ahead of the Giants could save the Jets valuable draft capital. It also gives them more control over the board, especially in a class that’s expected to be heavy on quarterback talent at the top.
Final Thoughts
The Jets are now firmly in the thick of the race for the No. 1 pick. They’ll need some help-specifically from teams like the Giants, Raiders, Titans, and Browns picking up wins-but the path is there.
And it starts tonight in Pittsburgh. A Steelers win could be the first domino in a draft tiebreaker chain that ends with the Jets sitting at the top of the board in April.
So, for Jets fans, Monday night isn’t just another primetime game. It’s a key piece of the puzzle in what’s shaping up to be a very strategic December.