Jets Climb the Draft Ladder, But the Road to a Top QB Pick Just Got Trickier
For New York Jets fans who have fully embraced the tank, Week 16 offered a little bit of good news-and a whole lot of scoreboard watching.
The Jets dropped their game to the Saints, 29-6, in what looked more like a preseason walkthrough than a late-season showdown. But for fans eyeing the 2026 NFL Draft, that loss was a win in disguise. And thanks to the Tennessee Titans hammering the already-eliminated Chiefs, the Jets nudged their way up from the fifth to the fourth overall spot in the current draft order.
But as is often the case with the NFL draft race, things aren't that simple.
The Draft Order After Week 16
Here’s how the top 10 of the draft board stacks up after Sunday’s action:
- New York Giants (2-13, .530 SOS)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-13, .545)
- Cleveland Browns (3-12, .490)
- New York Jets (3-12, .539)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-12, .575)
- Tennessee Titans (3-12, .575)
- Washington Commanders (4-11, .500)
- New Orleans Saints (5-10, .496)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-10, .516)
- Miami Dolphins (6-9, .492)
Moving up one spot is a positive step for the Jets, but climbing higher is going to take some help-and a little bit of luck.
Strength of Schedule: The Tiebreaker That Matters
The real drama lies in the strength of schedule (SOS) tiebreakers, which determine draft position when teams finish with identical records. And that’s where Sunday didn’t quite go the Jets’ way.
Before the games kicked off, the Jets were neck-and-neck with the Giants in SOS at .536, while the Raiders were a few steps ahead at .548. A few results breaking the right way could’ve tightened those margins. Instead, the opposite happened.
- Giants’ SOS dropped to .530
- Jets’ SOS increased to .539
That shift gave the Giants a 2.5-game edge in SOS, meaning if the two teams finish with the same record, the Giants will pick ahead of the Jets. The Raiders also saw a slight dip in their SOS, dropping to .545. That narrowed the gap between them and the Jets to just 1.5 games.
These margins matter. If the Jets end up tied with either team, SOS will likely be the deciding factor. And with just two weeks left, every half-game counts.
Monday Night Implications
The Jets could gain a bit of ground as early as Monday night. A 49ers win over the Colts would slightly improve the Jets’ SOS, bringing them closer to the Giants.
But here’s the catch: that same result would hurt their position relative to the Raiders. A Colts win helps the Jets in the Raiders race, while a 49ers win helps in the Giants race.
It’s a delicate balancing act where every outcome has a ripple effect.
Week 17: The Matchups That Matter
Looking ahead, the Jets are staring down a tough Week 17 matchup. They’ll be 12.5-point underdogs at home against the 12-3 Patriots.
Meanwhile, the Giants and Raiders face off in Las Vegas. That means one of those two teams is guaranteed to pick up a third win-unless, of course, we get the rare and chaotic tie, which honestly wouldn’t be out of place given how these offenses have looked.
If the Giants win, the Jets could still leapfrog the Raiders. If the Raiders win, the Jets could gain ground on the Giants. Either way, the result will have major implications for the draft board.
Cleveland’s Complication
Then there’s Cleveland. The Browns have already clinched the SOS tiebreaker over the Jets.
So the only way the Jets can move past them is by finishing with a worse record. That’s a tall order, but not impossible.
The Browns close out the season with two divisional games: at home against the 9-6 Steelers and on the road against the 5-10 Bengals. For Jets fans dreaming of a top-three pick, they’ll need to root for Cleveland to find a way to win at least one of those games.
The Quarterback Question
Here’s why all of this matters: the Jets are firmly in the quarterback market, and so are the Browns and Raiders. If the draft order ends up being Giants-Browns-Jets, the Jets are guaranteed one of the top three quarterback prospects.
That’s key in a class that currently projects only three first-round-caliber QBs: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Oregon’s Dante Moore, and Alabama’s Ty Simpson. None have officially declared, but all three are expected to be in the mix at the top of the board.
Now, the Giants aren’t expected to be in the QB market. If they stay at No. 1, that opens the door for a potential trade-up.
The Jets could theoretically leapfrog the Browns if they fall in love with a specific prospect. But if the order ends up Raiders-Browns-Jets, the Jets could be boxed out, left with the third quarterback off the board-or worse, if another team trades up.
That’s why, oddly enough, Jets fans might want to root for the Raiders to beat the Giants next week. It’s a strange place to be-cheering for just the right combination of wins and losses across the league-but that’s the reality when you’re playing the long game.
Final Thoughts
The Jets made a small but meaningful move up the draft board in Week 16. But the path to a top quarterback pick remains narrow, and it’s paved with strength-of-schedule math and scoreboard watching.
With two weeks left, every result matters. For fans dreaming of the next franchise quarterback, the next 14 days will be as tense as any playoff race-just with a very different kind of prize at the end.